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🗞️ Driving the news: Finland has released its latest “Government Report on the Future,” a 171-page strategic foresight study outlining four scenarios for the state of the world in 2045
• The report ranges from optimistic visions of global cooperation and a fair green transition, to dystopian futures marked by climate collapse, authoritarianism, and the breakdown of alliances such as NATO and the EU
🔭 The context: Issued every four years since 1993, Finland’s foresight report is a policymaking tool designed to guide long-term national strategy and is closely studied by international institutions including the EU and UN
• This year’s edition highlights both structural drivers — climate change, technology, and geopolitics — and “wild cards” such as an African economic boom, a Gulf Stream collapse triggering a European Ice Age, or breakthroughs in human longevity
🌍 Why it matters for the planet: The scenarios underscore the urgency of present-day decisions in shaping sustainable futures
• They illustrate how unchecked global warming could tip into irreversible collapse, while effective cooperation and responsible technology governance could anchor a resilient, equitable green transition
• The study also highlights the fragility of international institutions and the potential for climate-driven migration, inequality, and conflict to destabilize entire regions
⏭️ What's next: The Finnish government will use the findings to inform its long-term policymaking and resilience planning, with implications for EU and international strategy debates
• Globally, the report may serve as a benchmark for other countries and organizations considering similar scenario-based planning
• The key message: the trajectory of the next decade will heavily determine whether the world moves toward cooperation, confrontation, or collapse
💬 One quote: “The report works as a reminder of the things we need to get right now, in order to get the best future,” – Jaana Tapanainen-Thiess, Secretary General of Finland’s Government Report on the Future
📈 One stat: In the worst-case “crumbling world” scenario, global warming by 2045 is described as irreversible, driving mass migration, economic crisis, and the collapse of NATO and the EU
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