Risk of nuclear war grows amid new arms race

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🗞️ Driving the news: The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) warns that a new nuclear arms race is emerging amid a breakdown in arms control frameworks
• Its Yearbook 2025 reveals intensified modernization of nuclear arsenals by nearly all nine nuclear-armed states, alongside rising integration of AI and space technologies into nuclear strategies
• For the first time since the Cold War, the long-standing global reduction in nuclear warheads appears to be reversing

🔭 The context: Following the Cold War, nuclear stockpiles declined significantly—from roughly 64,000 in the 1980s to around 12,241 today
• However, this disarmament momentum stalled after 2010. Geopolitical tensions, particularly after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and the suspension of arms control treaties like New START have fueled rearmament
• The U.S. and Russia hold 90% of global nuclear weapons, but China’s arsenal — now at 600 warheads — is growing fastest

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: The expansion and technological transformation of nuclear arsenals heighten the risk of miscalculation, destabilization, and potential conflict escalation
• The rise of AI, cyber tools, and satellite-based systems complicates oversight and control mechanisms, potentially reducing decision time and increasing systemic vulnerabilities
• This evolution challenges global efforts toward nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation

⏭️ What's next: Key developments to watch include the potential formation of new nuclear sharing arrangements, especially in Europe and Asia; the role of AI governance in nuclear command systems; and renewed debates over deterrence strategies
• SIPRI calls for urgent dialogue among nuclear states and re-establishment of verifiable arms control mechanisms to prevent further deterioration of global security

💬 One quote: “The coming nuclear arms race is going to be as much about AI, cyberspace and outer space… as it is about missiles or bombs,” — Dan Smith, SIPRI Director

📈 One stat: An estimated 2,100 nuclear warheads are maintained on high operational alert, most belonging to the U.S. and Russia

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