The latest United Nations climate summit (COP30) was held between 10 and 21 November in Belém, Brazil. Although the event did not end with any significant progress towards the goals of mitigating global warming or advancing climate finance, it did leave us with one positive outcome: a group of countries has launched an initiative to phase out fossil fuels.
This summit was groundbreaking for two interrelated reasons. The first is that, in contrast to the three previous conferences, which were heavily policed, the streets of Belém were filled with protests. Thousands of demonstrators, including a large number of indigenous people, gathered to demand environmental justice, a term that refers not only to the consequences of climate change, but also to the need to protect territories and lives from the local impacts of oil extraction activities.
The second reason is that, for the first time, the need for a roadmap to abandon fossil fuels played a prominent role. Despite their key role in climate change, fossil fuels have been absent from COP decisions. Only the final agreement of COP28 in 2023 mentioned a vague intention to “transition away from fossil fuels.” This disappeared the following year at COP29, mainly due to pressure from Saudi Arabia.
But at COP30, more than 80 countries – led mainly by Colombia (itself an exporter of coal and oil) and the Netherlands, and including most European Union countries – have called for a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels.
Many protesters were around the COP30 venue throughout the summit. UN Climate Change - Diego Herculano/Flickr, CC BY-NC-SA
Oil producers resist climate action
The 2015 Paris Agreement led countries to adopt greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, or “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs). These measures are clearly insufficient to achieve their goal of mitigating climate change by limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
States were also required to subsequently update their NDCs, but any revisions have either been very tentative or non-existent.
In 2024, the average temperature increase compared to pre-industrial times already exceeded 1.5°C, and the latest United Nations report on the emissions gap indicates that, even if current national commitments were strictly met, the future increase would still be well over 2°C.
Oil-producing countries, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, fiercely opposed even mentioning the term “fossil fuels” in the COP30 final statement. In doing so, they are not showing opposition to a particular type of climate policy, but rather blocking the one essential condition for the Paris Agreement’s goal to be met: a rapid and radical decrease in fossil fuel extraction.
Phasing out fossil fuels
Reducing fossil fuel supply will not be easy, and must be approached equitably. This means the areas at greatest environmental and social risk must be made a priority, local communities need to have a say, and financial compensation must be established where necessary.
One cannot simply expect national policies that affect demand for fossil fuels – such as the promotion of renewable energy or carbon pricing – to cause a corresponding reduction in the extraction and sale of fossil fuels. This outcome is by no means guaranteed, and such measures may even cause some governments and companies to accelerate the extraction of fossil resources in anticipation of worse times for business – the so-called “green paradox.”
Supply and demand are both key, and must be managed in the most multilateral way possible.
A COP of contrasts and contradictions
COP30 saw massive demonstrations by indigenous people, but there were also, as in previous COPs, huge numbers of lobbyists present. They not only represented the fossil fuel industry, but also the agricultural and livestock businesses that are destroying the Amazon.
The host country itself is a testament to these contradictions. Its president, Lula da Silva, made it a priority to create a fund against deforestation for tropical forests, but he has also approved new oil exploration by Brazil’s state-owned company Petrobras in the Amazon, ignoring cries from the country’s indigenous populations of “our land is not for sale.”
This all occurred while Brazil’s Minister of the Environment, Marina Silva, urged all countries to have the courage to address the need to phase out fossil fuels.
No new climate finance
Climate financing involves payments from wealthy countries, which are historically responsible for global warming, to the poorest countries most affected by it. When talking about this, the official language of COPs has always avoided the term “climate justice,” and “reparations” even more so. However, there is talk of “differentiated responsibilities” and “equity.”
The Paris Agreement proposed mobilising around $100 billion annually for climate mitigation and adaptation. At COP29, a new collective financing target of $300 billion annually by 2035 was set. For comparison, this is less than 0.3% of global GDP and around 12% of global defence spending, which is growing year on year.
In this regard, nothing new has been proposed at COP30 beyond a reference to increasing dedicated adaptation funds. These amount to small promises and major failures to deliver, with no stipulations for how funds will be distributed. The funds themselves are a mixture of subsidies, loans, and profitable private capital investments based on voluntary contributions. Additionally, it has not been made clear where the concept of a “developing country” ends.
Proposals to create specific sources of funding, such as a global wealth tax or levies on aviation or maritime transport emissions, were not considered.
A new conference on fossil fuels
Amidst tension between two fiercely divided sides, COP30 closed with a final declaration that makes no reference to fossil fuels and barely mentions deforestation. But what can be expected when decisions require absolute consensus, meaning that any individual country can veto their approval?
However, COP30’s most significant outcome was not this text, nor even the maintenance of the current COP framework. Outside the consensus – indeed, outside the UN itself – Colombia and the Netherlands have announced, with the support of 22 other countries, that they will draw up a roadmap for abandoning fossil fuels. They will begin by holding a conference of their own in April 2026.
Let us hope that this initiative opens up new perspectives, and that social movements continue to fight under the slogan they introduced many decades ago: “Keep fossil fuels in the ground.”
This article is also published on The Conservation. illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of leading Sustainability & Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.
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