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🗞️ Driving the news: The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict may hinge on a single number: Iran’s remaining stockpile of medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs)
• Estimates suggest that after firing around 700 missiles over the past 14 months, Iran could have between 300 and 1,300 missiles left
• The depletion of this arsenal, combined with Israel’s airstrikes targeting missile launchers, could significantly influence the course of the conflict
🔭 The context: Iran’s missile stockpile, estimated at around 3,000 missiles prior to the conflict, has been severely impacted by Israel’s air assault
• Despite Israel’s military actions, Iran’s ability to replace its missile inventory is constrained, and the possibility of assistance from China could alter the situation
• This depletion has led analysts to speculate that Iran’s strategic calculations might shift, either towards negotiations or intensified efforts to maintain missile deterrence
🌍 Why it matters for the planet: The conflict between Israel and Iran holds broader geopolitical significance, with the potential to impact regional stability, global energy markets, and the balance of power in the Middle East
• The outcome of this missile exchange could have long-term consequences for both nations’ military strategies and influence on neighboring states
⏭️ What's next: As both sides continue to engage militarily, the depletion of Iran’s missile stockpile may prompt a critical turning point
• The conflict’s trajectory will depend not only on the size of Iran’s remaining arsenal but also on its capacity to rebuild its military infrastructure
• Any shift in missile production or foreign assistance could dramatically alter the balance
💬 One quote: “For the Islamic Republic, quantity has a quality of its own.” — Behnam Ben Taleblu, Senior Fellow, Foundation for the Defense of Democracies
📈 One stat: Iran has fired an estimated 700 medium-range ballistic missiles in the last 14 months, depleting its stockpile by up to 23%
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