On the brink: COP29 in Azerbaijan and the fight for 1.5°C

How are we all feeling? It’s one of those times when the world feels balanced on a knife edge, with much of our collective attention focused on the United States. But for those of us committed to climate action, our eyes are also on Azerbaijan—a country at the crossroads of Eastern Europe and Western Asia, and the unlikely host of COP29, the latest Conference of the Parties.

Longtime readers will know that I’ve often criticized the COP process, calling for sweeping changes to make it more effective. Given a magic wand, there are plenty of reforms I’d make to see COPs yield real progress. Yet, despite its flaws, the COP process remains our last, best hope to keep global warming below 1.5°C.

Azerbaijan as COP host: an unlikely setting

Why Azerbaijan? Why a country that relies so heavily on oil and gas? Hydrocarbons contribute approximately one-third of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and account for over 90% of its total exports.

This choice wasn’t random but dictated by the United Nations’ regional rotation, which required the COP to be hosted by a country in the Eastern European bloc. Russia, wielding its veto power, blocked any European Union nation due to the ongoing tensions over Ukraine. Ultimately, the decision came down to Azerbaijan and Armenia—two countries locked in a decades-long conflict. Against the odds, they reached an agreement that included prisoner exchanges and other confidence-building measures, allowing Azerbaijan to take on the COP29 presidency.

This is telling. Azerbaijan actively pursued this role. They weren’t reluctantly handed the responsibility; they fought for it, keen to position themselves as environmental leaders. They’re also set to host the UN’s Environmental Leadership Day in 2026 and are bidding to host the biodiversity COP the same year.

Can Azerbaijan bridge its own divides?

Azerbaijan is in a tough spot. The first point to make is Azerbaijan is critically climate vulnerable, so on one hand, should be highly motivated to find solutions.

However, not only is Azerbaijan a country with substantial stakes in oil and gas, it plans to expand production. In July 2022, Azerbaijan and the European Union signed a memorandum of understanding to double gas exports to the EU to at least 20 billion cubic meters (bcm) annually by 2027 to meet European demand as an alternative to Russian gas. The potential conflict of interest is evident.

Taking the optimist’s view, this is exactly why Azerbaijan’s role could be key to a breakthrough. The COP process is driven by consensus; every country must agree to the outcomes, meaning that the most reluctant nations effectively set both the floor and the ceiling of ambition.

While there was skepticism amongst many (myself included) about the UAE’s leadership at COP28 and without going into how that particular sausage was made, they achieved a historic concession. Including “transitioning away from fossil fuels” in the final text was a step forward, however insufficient, after nearly three decades of trying.

In a consensus-based system, it appears that it can sometimes make sense to have the more resistant players in the driver’s seat, as long as the international community keeps the pressure on. The question is whether Azerbaijan, caught between its economic reliance on fossil fuels and the pressing need for climate action, can navigate this delicate balance and whether the international community is sufficiently united to keep the balance of interests on climate rather than production.

The 1.5°C target: can we keep it alive?

A common refrain I hear is: does this COP matter? Isn’t it COP30 in Brazil the big goal? In my humble opinion, the answer is the stakes are immense. Last year’s Global Stocktake made clear we’re alarmingly off track to limit warming to 1.5°C. This COP marks the midpoint in a series of three—COP28, COP29, and next year’s COP30—aimed at keeping this goal within reach. COP29 is the ‘finance COP’ where the financial groundwork must be laid to enable developing countries to implement strong national climate plans ahead of COP30.

According to a report by the Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance, emerging markets and developing countries (excluding China) require approximately $2.4 trillion annually by 2030 to address climate and nature goals. Of this amount, around $1 trillion per year is expected to come from external sources, including both public and private finance. Without adequate funding, decarbonisation on the scale required will be impossible. The global climate clock is ticking louder than ever, and the window for action is shrinking.

Financing climate action: will we see real commitment?

The headline outcome for COP29 is to be the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on climate finance, a new target set to replace the previously agreed and largely symbolic $100 billion annual goal, which was meant to flow from developed to developing countries. That goal, originally to be met by 2020, only apparently materialized (there is much debate) two years late, damaging trust in the process. The NCQG is intended to be a more realistic reflection of developing countries’ actual needs and was expected to be at the $1 trillion level mentioned above. Yet, less than two weeks before COP29 starts, there’s no agreement on the scale of this financing, let alone on the facilitating mechanisms.

What’s absolutely clear is developing countries need both clarity and scale in this new financial commitment. Developed nations, instead, are debating both the amount and whether developing nations should also contribute. Some propose a two-tier funding approach: a core of mobilized public funds and an outer layer focused on overhauling global financial systems to align private finance with climate goals. At any successful COP, much of the complexity has been pre-negotiated before the start of the conference; as matters stand, the level of complexity apparently remaining here means the odds for success aren’t great.

One important symbolic first step has been taken by launching a fossil fuel profits fund, though its initial target of $1 billion is minuscule relative to both the need and to global fossil fuel subsidies, which total around $7 trillion. The fund is an important symbolic principle, a first step to the widespread adoption of a commitment to leverage profits from fossil fuel industries toward climate resilience and adaptation.

Azerbaijan’s crossroads: an opportunity for leadership

As a nation vulnerable both to the impacts of climate change and to the economic shifts of a global energy transition, the hope is Azerbaijan can act as a bridge. This COP offers Azerbaijan a rare opportunity to set a forward-thinking example for other fossil fuel-dependent economies. If they can chart a path that balances immediate economic needs with long-term climate goals, Azerbaijan might provide a roadmap for countries facing similar dilemmas.

COP29 in Azerbaijan is a linchpin moment, joining last year’s commitments with the critical actions needed for next year’s COP30 commitments. For all the system’s flaws, the COP process remains our only viable platform for global climate collaboration. Pushing for the highest ambition and decisive action is not just an ideal; it’s our only option.

As we stand on the edge of irreversible change, all countries must step up, bridge their divides, and take action to secure a livable future for generations to come. In a world with so much uncertainty and so many demands on our attention, our job, dear reader, is to notice and to care. Without the input from the climate-conscious, the moment will pass, and the opportunity will be lost. Our leaders and representatives need to know we are watching what is happening in Baku and that we are demanding the very best for our planet.

Finding a path for the developing world to obtain the funding needed to hold off the worst impacts of the climate emergency may seem impossible, but it is not. My next article will outline how well-established pathways can be scaled and repurposed.