Nature doesn’t have a "pause" button: Why boards must act now despite the noise

The world in 2026 is, frankly, exhausting. Between the $3 trillion industrial build-out of AI, worries about related job losses, shifting geopolitical alliances, threats of war, and the constant economic volatility, it is tempting for a board to push “nature” to next year’s agenda.

But here is the cold, scientific reality: Earth’s biological processes do not care about your quarterly priorities and targets. Working on the latest IPBES Business and Biodiversity assessment, it became very clear to me. While we debate compute power and Trump’s latest “ideas”, the biological foundations of our global economy — the "natural capital" engine that provides $125 trillion in contributions —continue to erode. This already starts to show in some corporate earnings through inflation in nature-related commodities, rising insurance premiums, volatility of fish stocks, energy and water shortages. It is also just the beginning. We are approaching the nature’s breaking points which can lead to non-linear, irreversible damage to the economy. The good news? The world’s most influential investors do not wait for the quiet window of opportunity. They are now sending clear signals to corporate executives and boards, asking them to act, and act fast.

The Norges Bank "hammer"

The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, USD 2 trillion Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), has a mandate to preserve Norwegian wealth for future generations. And it has just published its Nature Expectations targeting corporate executives and boards. Their message is clear: nature-related risks are financial risks, and nature-blindness is a breach of fiduciary duty.

NBIM asks boards to ensure nature-related risks and opportunities are integrated into corporate strategy. They see the recommendations of the Taskforce for Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) as a starting point, and ask corporates to provide “quantitative, business-relevant information to understand how nature-related factors affect their activities and cash flows”, setting up a list of “core” and “ecosystem-specific” requirements.

They will use their voting power to vote against the re-election of board members at companies that fail to provide disclosure of their nature dependencies. They are looking for data that will inform their investment decisions.

The $7.3 trillion systemic gap

Global financial flows with a directly negative impact on nature are estimated at $7.3 trillion annually. Meanwhile, a mere $220 billion flows toward conservation and restoration. Last February, 150 governments approved a report stating the need to reform this system.

This should be on the minds of directors. As regulations tighten and subsidies towards nature restoration replace those degrading it, companies on the wrong side of that equation will face stranded asset risk, rising cost of capital, and investor exit. The IPBES Business and Biodiversity Assessment dismantles the most common executive excuse: “We don’t have the data.” It explicitly states that companies do not need perfect data to begin acting. The tools, the metrics, and the science-based guidance now exist — including a methodological roadmap developed in our chapter on precisely which measurement approaches to use for which strategic purpose, whether screening for nature dependencies, setting targets, or preparing an investor-grade disclosure.

2026: Three forces making nature disclosures unavoidable

It isn’t just Norges Bank. We are seeing a convergence of signals that should put nature at the top of board agendas in 2026:

• In March 2026, the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB) finalized its decision to integrate nature-related transition plans into IFRS standards. Nature is no longer a voluntary add-on: for companies reporting under IFRS, it is now part of the baseline.

• The upcoming COP17 in Armenia starts to be referred to as a “finance COP” as this is where the key financing rules for nature restoration are going to be agreed. There will likely be the most significant presence from the private sector at a COP to date. TNFD is going to host a 4-day programme for corporates. The Finance for Biodiversity Foundation, representing institutions managing €23 trillion in assets (AUM), announced it will send a large delegation there. The author will be among the delegates.

• Following the success of COP16, the Cali Fund is now operationalizing payments for the use of Digital Sequence Information. Pharmaceuticals and consumer goods companies relying on the use of genetic resources will have to pay for their use. The exact figures will be ironed out in Armenia.

The "rational sustainability" play

Many boards feel paralyzed by the "AI vs. Nature" trade-off. They worry that focusing on biodiversity will slow down their digital transformation.

I argue the opposite. Rational sustainability means recognizing that AI and nature are two sides of the same resilience coin. You cannot run a massive, water-hungry data center in a region facing a nature-driven water crisis. You cannot secure a supply chain for critical minerals while ignoring the biodiversity regulations that govern the land they sit on.

The call to action is simple: stop waiting for a moment of calm that may never arrive. If you do not know where to begin, start by commissioning a biodiversity impact and dependency assessment across your value chain — it will surface your highest-risk exposures and point to practical next steps. These can include switching to more sustainable raw materials or de-risking your product or loan portfolio. Those steps are typically less disruptive and less costly than executives expect. In most cases, they won’t affect your earnings at all, while boosting investor confidence.  Early evidence shows that firms with large biodiversity footprints are already being penalised with a measurably higher cost of capital — a biodiversity risk premium that emerged after the Kunming Declaration in 2021 and has been growing since.

Investors are no longer watching from the sidelines — they are looking at your disclosures and at the ballot box. Nature is moving. Ensure your board is moving with it. Start a conversation on nature impacts and dependencies now. Your investors will thank you.

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