My thoughts on existence: Rethinking "existential threat"

"To be, or not to be: that is the question." Hamlet’s profound contemplation encapsulates more than a reflection on physical existence or death. It delves deeply into the complex, layered nature of human experience itself. Hamlet wonders not only about the act of living or dying but about the profound implications of how we choose to endure life's challenges. "Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, or to take arms against a sea of troubles," he muses, capturing the tension between physical survival and the deeper, experiential reflection on existence—on what gives life purpose and heart.

This idea strikes at the core of what we are experiencing today as we face the climate crisis and the broader polycrisis. The term existential threat has become commonplace, frequently invoked by activists and media to suggest humanity's extinction. Yet, this framing often conjures fear and hopelessness, reinforcing doom-and-gloom narratives that can hinder meaningful action. However, the deeper philosophical roots of existentialism—grounded in how we find meaning and purpose in life, not just survival—offer a different perspective.

"Man is condemned to be free; because once thrown into the world, he is responsible for everything he does." - Jean-Paul Sartre

Existentialism, as a philosophical tradition, asserts that individuals create their own meaning within an indifferent or even chaotic universe. Our lives are not predetermined by nature or external forces; instead, we hold the responsibility and privilege of crafting our own purpose. Climate change and the polycrisis are indeed existential threats—not because they risk humanity's biological extinction, but because they threaten the very structures and systems that provide coherence and meaning to our lives. The crisis endangers our collective capacity to create meaningful existence amidst uncertainty and disruption.

This critical distinction is not semantic—it profoundly shapes how we respond to the crisis. In a recent Gizmodo article by Ellyn Lapointe, psychologist Renee Lertzman highlights this crucial distinction, noting that “when we talk about climate in terms of existential threats, we risk triggering overwhelm and disengagement rather than empowered action.” She emphasizes that an overemphasis on extinction can disempower rather than activate society toward necessary change. Seth Baum, an existential risk scholar cited in the same piece, further clarifies the distinction between catastrophic risk—severe but recoverable disruptions—and existential (extinction) risk, highlighting the importance of precise language in framing the crisis. 

My view aligns with theirs yet goes a step further: we must recognize climate change as an existential threat not because it risks humanity's physical extinction, but because it fundamentally disrupts our collective and individual experience of existence. As systems we depend on—ecological, economic, social—begin to collapse or radically change, our lives will inevitably transform. While this transformation will affect everyone differently, no one remains untouched. Even the top 1%, somewhat shielded by wealth, will experience disruptions in fundamental aspects of life.

The narrative of human extinction, though vivid, can become an easy target for deniers who capitalize on its perceived absurdity to discredit legitimate concerns about climate impacts. The existential threat to our lived experience, however, is harder to dismiss. It acknowledges the profound, predictable, and unpredictable shifts humanity will face, urging us towards proactive mitigation and adaptation.

In this context, the term catastrophic risk is also problematic in my opinion. The IPCC reports—recently criticized for underestimating negative impacts—point towards multiple catastrophic events as practically inevitable at this point. As a result of decades of inaction and failure to heed the warnings of scientists and activists, we will undoubtedly experience an unprecedented scale of devastating climate-induced disasters. Indeed, in many places, people are already living in survival mode, struggling to adapt to the rapidly changing climate. Even if we were to stop emitting greenhouse gases tomorrow, we would still face the consequences of the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere—effects that will persist for decades. It is not a matter of whether we are at risk of catastrophes, the questions are when they will happen, how bad they will be, and who will experience them.

This is not coming from a doomer—quite the contrary. I am actually pretty optimistic about the solutions available to us to recover from the inevitable catastrophes. 

This brings me to a distinction that I’ve long held in this debate: the difference between catastrophic risk and cataclysmic risk. Catastrophes result in widespread damage, but not necessarily long-lasting change—they are recoverable. I propose that cataclysmic risk is a more apt term to describe scenarios that lead to dystopian conditions, permanently undermining humanity's ability to recover and regenerate. Imagine a world where essential ecological and societal systems break down irreversibly, and thriving becomes nearly impossible—this is the cataclysmic scenario we must urgently strive to avoid at all costs. 

Yet, even facing such daunting catastrophic realities and cataclysmic risk, there is an existential opportunity. Precisely because our experience of existence is threatened—not our existence itself—we retain the agency to design solutions, to rebuild our systems regeneratively. The goal is not to merely survive, but to thrive amidst the inevitable transformations ahead.

Embracing the existential threat as a call to action, rather than a harbinger of doom, empowers us to move from fear to possibility, from conflict to collaboration. This is our existential opportunity: to consciously shape the regenerative future we desire, ensuring our shared human experience is not only preserved but enriched.

illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of leading Sustainability & Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.

See how the companies in your sector perform on sustainability. On illuminem’s Data Hub™, access emissions data, ESG performance, and climate commitments for thousands of industrial players across the globe.