Is Africa’s energy transition gas dependent? Lessons from Nigeria

The energy transition in Africa, particularly in Nigeria, raises critical questions about the continent’s reliance on fossil fuels and its path toward sustainable energy sources. The ongoing global effort to address climate change, as seen at previous COP conferences, emphasizes the importance of moving from fossil fuel-based energy systems to renewable alternatives such as solar, wind, and hydropower. However, this transition poses unique challenges for Africa due to its developmental needs, the nascent state of its renewable energy infrastructure, and its heavy dependence on fossils as revenue and fuel for industrialization.

COP27, held in the coastal town of Sharm al-Sheikh on the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt, focused on the urgent need for climate action, prioritizing the implementation of real-world solutions over mere promises. Egypt positions itself ahead of many African countries in tackling the climate crisis with over $211 million in renewable energy projects and the development of its Green Hydrogen Strategy. In Africa, a key priority is securing climate financing to support the transition. Nigeria, for example, has set an ambitious target to become carbon neutral by 2060. Achieving this goal requires an estimated $1.3 trillion, a staggering amount that underscores the continent’s need for external support and financing.

While Africa’s energy transition may initially rely on gas as a practical bridge, a sustainable and inclusive future demands strategic investments in renewable energy, this ensures the continent does not lag in the global shift towards cleaner, more equitable energy systems.

Gas as a transition fuel?

Natural gas is produced by extracting hydrocarbons from underground reservoirs. These reservoirs form over millions of years from the remains of ancient marine organisms undergoing heat and pressure. Gas is typically obtained by drilling wells into the earth and, in some cases, through hydraulic fracturing (fracking) to release trapped gas in shale rock formations. After extraction, gas is processed to remove impurities before being distributed for use.

Natural gas production is considered cleaner and more affordable than fossil fuel extraction because it releases fewer carbon emissions and pollutants during both extraction and combustion while benefiting from lower operational costs and higher energy efficiency.

For many African countries, the question remains whether gas will serve as a critical bridge in the energy transition. As one of Africa’s largest oil producers, Nigeria finds itself at a crossroads. While the global community urges a shift towards renewables, Nigeria continues to rely on fossil fuels to power its economy. The Dangote Refinery, the largest single-train refinery in the world, is currently in its early days of operations in Nigeria, with the capacity to process 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day, marking a significant milestone in the country’s energy sector.

Given that Nigeria’s energy infrastructure is based mainly on fossil fuel extraction and combustion, gas is a more practical option for the medium term.

Although gas is deemed a cleaner alternative than coal and oil, it has drawbacks. Significant risks and limitations are associated with its widespread use, particularly in sectors like transportation. Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), promoted as a cleaner and affordable vehicle alternative, has been linked to numerous safety concerns, including explosions caused by poor maintenance and inadequate regulatory oversight. These incidents highlight the technical and infrastructural challenges in adopting gas as a safer, long-term solution. As Nigeria continues to expand its use of CNG, these risks underscore the need for stringent safety standards, robust regulatory frameworks, and investments in better infrastructure to prevent accidents and ensure public safety. Without addressing these issues, the reliance on gas could have dire consequences, particularly in urban areas where CNG-powered vehicles are becoming more common.

The eventual depletion of gas reserves also necessitates forward-looking strategies incorporating a broader mix of renewable energy sources. Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan acknowledges this dilemma.

In the short to medium term, gas will be critical to maintaining industrial activity and powering key sectors. However, for a sustainable transition, investments must be made in renewable energy infrastructure, alongside capacity development in wind, solar, and hydropower sectors.

Africa’s industrialization and the energy mix

The path to industrialization in Africa is energy-intensive, making energy transition planning more complex. Africa is richly endowed with fossil fuels, which have historically powered its economies. But, as global attention shifts to sustainability, Africa must find a balance between utilizing its fossil fuel reserves and accelerating the adoption of renewable energy.

The ideal solution lies in an energy mix—one that incorporates fossil fuels, while gradually scaling up investments in renewables.

For Nigeria, achieving a more sustainable energy landscape would require leveraging its gas reserves as a transition fuel. However, this strategy has risks. One of the primary concerns is ensuring that marginalized communities, including indigenous populations, are not further disenfranchised during this transition. These communities, often located near fossil fuel extraction sites, bear the brunt of environmental degradation without benefiting from the energy resources extracted.

Energy justice for marginalized communities remains a significant challenge across Africa. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), more than 600 million Africans cannot access electricity. This energy poverty exacerbates economic inequality, limits industrial growth, and hampers human development. In Nigeria, the situation is dire—over 80 million people lack access to reliable electricity, with rural communities being disproportionately affected.

The energy justice debate in Nigeria is also tied to its broader energy transition strategy. While the country explores more sustainable energy options, it must ensure that access to affordable energy is not compromised. This balance is critical, as the shift to renewables, if not carefully managed, could exacerbate energy poverty in communities already struggling to meet their basic needs.

Challenges and opportunities

The challenges of transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy are deeply entrenched in Nigeria’s economic structure. The country’s economy relies heavily on oil revenue, which accounts for a significant portion of government income. This dependence on fossil fuels has created a complex web of interests, making it difficult to fully embrace renewable energy without facing potential socio-economic disruptions.

At the heart of Nigeria’s energy transition is how the country produces and consumes energy. The current energy landscape is dominated by fossil fuels, particularly oil and gas, which are central to Nigeria’s economy and geopolitical standing. The recent expansion of oil and gas exploration, including the development of the Dangote Refinery, highlights the tension between Nigeria’s energy transition commitments and its reliance on fossil fuels.

One of the main hurdles in transitioning to renewables is the historically low value placed on gas as a resource. Gas was once flared off as waste during oil extraction, but its increasing value, driven by global demand, has positioned it as a key player in Nigeria’s transition strategy. However, gas alone is not the solution, and without a more diverse energy portfolio, Nigeria risks being left behind in the global shift toward clean energy.

Learning from the global transition

Investing in renewable energy requires significant financial resources, technological advancements, and robust policy frameworks—areas in which Nigeria currently faces substantial gaps. Much of Nigeria’s energy infrastructure is designed around fossil fuel extraction and consumption. This infrastructure would need to be adapted or replaced to accommodate renewable energy sources, a time-consuming and capital-intensive task.

Nigeria and Africa, more broadly, have a unique opportunity to avoid the pitfalls other industrialized nations encounter during their energy transitions. If not carefully managed, the global push for industrialization could lead Africa down the same path of environmental degradation seen elsewhere.

Industrialization must be pursued with an eye toward sustainability, ensuring that future growth does not exacerbate climate risks.

Africa’s ability to industrialize sustainably hinges on adopting systems thinking, where economic development goals are aligned with environmental protection and social equity. This holistic approach would prevent the continent from repeating the mistakes of previous industrializing nations, such as excessive reliance on fossil fuels, without considering long-term environmental impacts.

Conclusion

The energy transition in Nigeria and Africa is fraught with challenges. Moving away from fossil fuels to embrace renewable energy will require a concerted effort to overcome the financial, technological, and infrastructural barriers currently impeding progress. Gas may serve as a transitional fuel but is a temporary solution. To meet its climate goals and secure future energy needs, Africa must invest heavily in renewable energy while ensuring that the most vulnerable populations are not left behind in the transition.

The global energy landscape is shifting, and Africa must position itself to take advantage of this shift. With the right policies, investments, and international support, Africa can create a sustainable, equitable energy future.

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