Hydrogen is a stupid idea

I started working on solar energy as a young engineer in the early nineties. For decades people argued that the sun doesn't shine at night (true), that solar energy kills more people than nuclear energy (probably true if you account for the statistical dangers of working on roofs), and that solar power plants require as much conventional power to function (nonsense, but a persistent myth). These discussions were tough for decades, because electricity generated by solar photovoltaics was much more expensive than fossil electricity. So, we either looked for expensive niches or we subsidised it. And then something miraculous happened, solar PV gradually became less expensive. Because of subsidies and hard work, manufacturers could increase the scale of production, work on higher efficiencies and manage supply chains better, which all led to lower costs. And lower costs led to more demand, and the virtuous circle did its work until solar electricity became cheaper than everything else. And that changed everything. All over the world, solar PV is now the default choice when new capacity is required and has been for many years. What looked like a rather stupid idea for decades, isn't stupid anymore.

When the latest clean hydrogen wave started a decade ago, I was excited. Solar and wind energy had just become not stupid ideas any longer and I had expected we could do the same with hydrogen, but faster this time. Many people and companies joined. The reality has been more complex though, and hydrogen is currently a stupid idea according to many. Don't get me wrong, hydrogen is developing healthily, but not as fast as we had hoped for. Not that the fundamentals have changed, on the contrary. It should be mentioned here that hydrogen is not a nice-to-have, but an indispensable part of a future clean energy system. Molecules dominate energy storage for example, which is essential to guarantee a functional, affordable and secure energy system. And that includes our electricity system, which we are rapidly cleaning up. These molecules cannot be replaced by batteries, so unless we clean up molecules, emissions remain. To put things into perspective: energy storage constitutes 28,541 TWh today, all of which are molecules: oil, coal and natural gas.¹ IRENA expects battery capacity to grow to 42 TWh by 2050, whereas the IEA's Net Zero by 2050 scenario arrives at 25.4 TWh, both a tiny fraction of one percent of overall storage.¹ So, batteries are very meaningful, but cannot and will not replace clean molecules, of which hydrogen will be the dominant share.

There are many reasons why hydrogen is different from renewable electricity. A solar plant uses the same infrastructure as conventional generation and produces the same product, an electron. Hydrogen or its derivatives replace many different things: diesel when used as a transport fuel, jet fuel in aviation, heavy fuel oil in maritime transport, coking coal in a steel plant, natural gas for heating or power generation, etc. All of which have different prices, are governed by different sets of regulation, and are part of different markets. And the transmission, distribution and storage infrastructure doesn't exist either. Like solar energy in the past, because we are not yet producing hydrogen at scale, it is mostly more expensive than conventional alternatives.

What needs to be done? What hydrogen doesn't have is a champion at the right level in a jurisdiction that can make a difference. The European Union is a net energy importer now and in the future, has infrastructure for natural gas that can be converted to accommodate hydrogen, has a hydrogen strategy and supportive legislation. What the EU needs is someone who loses sleep when hydrogen doesn't happen fast enough and the EU27 struggles with the next energy supply and price shock. Someone who can steer the ship in the choppy waters of concerns about affordability, loss of competitiveness, confusion about the necessity of clean molecules vs. electrification, defence spending and vested fossil interests. A Hydrogen Czar. Ideally an Executive Vice President of the European Commission. Someone to work on hydrogen until it isn't a stupid idea any longer.

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