Global warming reaches 1.4C after third-hottest year on record

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illuminem summarises for you the essential news of the day. Read the full piece on POLITICO or enjoy below:

🗞️ Driving the news: Global warming has reached around 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, putting the world on track to cross the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C threshold before 2030, according to new data from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service
• Scientists confirm that 2025 was the third-hottest year on record, despite the cooling influence of La Niña emerging late in the year
• Recent multi-year averages now show sustained warming close to 1.5°C, a critical climate danger zone

🔭 The context: The Paris Agreement aims to keep warming “well below” 2°C and ideally under 1.5°C, based on long-term trends rather than single years
• Copernicus models using five-year averages and 30-year trends now converge around 1.4°C
• Greenhouse gas accumulation from fossil fuel use remains the dominant driver, outweighing natural climate variability

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: Every fraction of a degree increases the risk of irreversible climate tipping points
• Crossing 1.5°C raises the likelihood of ice-sheet loss, sea-level rise, rainforest dieback, and disruption of ocean circulation
• 2025 saw record wildfire emissions in Europe, shrinking polar ice, accelerating warming feedback loops, and expanded zones of extreme heat stress across much of the globe

⏭️ What’s next: The world is entering an “overshoot” phase, where temperatures temporarily exceed 1.5°C
• Scientists warn that managing overshoot will depend on rapid emissions cuts and large-scale carbon removal — technologies not yet available at sufficient scale
• Delays increase climate risks and make eventual stabilization more costly and uncertain

💬 One quote: “It’s basically inevitable that we will pass that threshold, and it’s up to us to decide how we want to deal with the higher risk we will face,” said Carlo Buontempo, Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service

📈 One stat: 1.4°C current estimated level of global warming above pre-industrial temperatures

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