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🗞️ Driving the news: The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) reports that temperatures are likely to temporarily breach the threshold of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels
• There is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years will be the hottest on record, according to scientists
🌎 Why it matters for the planet: There is a scientific consensus that heating beyond that level could cause catastrophic and potentially irreversible impacts
• The WMO warning shows that the world is far off track in reducing greenhouse gas emissions enough to limit temperature rises
🔭 The context: Global average surface temperatures have never before breached the 1.5C threshold, with the highest average in previous years being 1.28C above pre-industrial levels
• The onset of an El Niño weather system, combined with climate breakdown, is predicted to create heatwaves worldwide, further escalating global temperature records
⏭️ What’s next: Governments will meet next December for the Cop28 summit to assess progress towards meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement (which aims to limit temperature rise to 1.5C)
• In the meantime, the WMO and national meteorological services will closely monitor the development of El Niño and the related impact on global temperatures and weather patterns
💬 One quote: “A warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory. We need to be prepared.” (Prof. Petteri Taalas, WMO)
📈 One stat: There is a 66% likelihood of exceeding the 1.5C threshold in at least one year between 2023 and 2027. The global near-surface temperature is predicted to be between 1.1C and 1.8C above the pre-industrial average for each year from 2023 to 2027
The full-length article was published in The Guardian
