The Global Stocktake (GST), embedded in the framework of the Paris Agreement (PA), helps assess the countries’ collective efforts to combat climate change (UNCC, 2024; 2022). The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report confirmed that 2023 was the warmest year in a 174-year climate record. Records were broken in sea level rise, ocean heat, Antarctic Sea ice loss, and glacier retreat in Western North America and Europe (WMO, 2024). Therefore, Japan, the world’s fourth-largest developed economy and fifth-biggest carbon emitter, must spearhead devising and implementing climate change countermeasures with ambition, transparency, and accountability (Statista, UNCC, 2024; Brittanica, 2022). This article analyzes Japan’s current NDC (Nationally Determined Contributions) objectives, briefly discusses its mitigation/adaptation strategies, describes potential plans to strengthen NDC in the upcoming five-year increments, and addresses equity issues from Japan’s perspective.  

2021 NDC’s objectives

The core of NDCs comprises three main objectives: mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, adaptation to climate change, and promotion of sustainable development (illuminem, 2024). First, concerning mitigation, in the 2021 NDC, Japan, as a developed country, per PA’s Article 4.4., committed to an economy-wide absolute target to reduce its emissions by 46% and potentially by 50% by the fiscal year 2030 against 2013 levels. Japan’s 2015 NDC, resubmitted in 2020, had a GHG target of a 26% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 2013 (UNFCCC, 2021; UNFCC, 2024; Panda, 2022). In other words, Japan’s new commitment to reduce emissions by 46% by 2030 represents a substantial increase compared to its previous target. Japan’s 2021 NDC includes the following sectors: energy, agriculture, industrial processes and products used, land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), and waste. Targeted gases comprise carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, perfluorocarbons, hydrofluorocarbons, sulfur hexafluoride, and nitrogen trifluoride. Moreover, through the Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM), Japan strives to secure accumulated international emission reductions and removals of nearly 100 million t-CO2 by fiscal year 2030 and count the acquired credits towards its NDC (UNFCCC, 2021).

Second, regarding adaptation, Japan has no clear adaptation objectives mentioned in the NDC despite having a National Adaptation Plan (MEJ, 2018). Therefore, regardless of the importance of adaptation, mitigation seems to be the main priority in Japan’s 2021 NDC. Lastly, the NDC mentions Japan’s Voluntary National Review for further information on its actions for the United Nations’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The NDC also stresses the significance of just transition policies by showing Japan’s commitment to efforts related to gender equality and the creation of novel jobs and industries in the transition to a circular economy, which is vital for decarbonization and through nature-based solutions (UNFCCC, 2021).  

2021’s NDC mitigation and adaptation strategies

Japan believes in building an effective climate policy design, which includes sustainable mitigation and adaptation strategies. Concerning mitigation, in the 2021 NDC, Japan stated its commitment to obtain carbon neutrality by 2050 and realize its 2030 emission targets through decarbonizing public sectors and local communities, maximum renewable energy roll-out, and energy efficiency measures. Based on the “Strategy for Sustainable Food Systems, MeaDRI (Measures for Achievement of Decarbonization and Resilience with Innovation), Japan strives to increase productivity potential and guarantee sustainability through innovation. Per “MLIT’s Green Challenge,” Japan will also pursue actions in cross-sectoral decarbonization in national, regional, and urban spheres, especially while strategically transitioning to a circular economy and carrying out nature-based solutions. Furthermore, under PA’s Article 6.2, Japan committed to establish and implement the JCM to evaluate Japan’s contributions to GHG emissions reductions and removals that can be achieved through the diffusion of technologies, infrastructures, services, systems, services, and implementation of measures in developing countries and others to utilize such contributions for meeting Japan’s NDC (UNCC, 2024, UNFCC, 2021). As of December 2023, Japan contributed to the global net zero agenda through the JCM with 28 partner countries (MEJ, 2023). 

Regarding adaptation, as mentioned earlier, the 2021 NDC does not include adaptation objectives or references to its National Adaptation Plan (NAP), which is focused on adaption measures for the following sectors such as 1) water environment and resources, 2) agriculture, forestry, fisheries, 3) natural ecosystems, 4) natural disasters, 5) human health, 6) industries and economic activity, and 7) life of citizens. The critical adaptation strategies are as follows: 1) promotion of the climate change adaptation based on scientific findings, 2) mainstreaming adaptation into government policies, 3) gathering research and developing information infrastructure, 4) considering local background, promoting adaptation, 5) contributing to capacity enhancement in the developing countries, 6) deepening understanding of people and promoting adaptation across sectors, and 7) ensuring collaboration among various government agencies (MEJ, 2018). In many of its measures, the NAP recognizes that Japan must operate like Schrödinger’s cat “in two different climate futures” (Ruhl & Craig, 2021, p. 199), with mitigation focused on a ceiling of 2°C and adaptation prepared for at least 4°C increase (MEJ, 2018). In quantum mechanics, Schrödinger’s cat represents a thought experiment concerning quantum superposition. In the thought experiment, a hypothetical cat may be considered simultaneously both dead and alive while it is unobserved in a closed box as a result of its fate being tied to a random subatomic event that may or may not occur. This thought experiment was created by physicist Erwin Schrödinger in 1935 in a discussion with Albert Einstein to show what Schrödinger saw as the problems of Copenhagen's interpretation of quantum mechanics. Fundamentally, Schrödinger’s cat paradox remains an unresolved problem in physics (Moore, 1989). 

Potential steps: Strengthening Japan’s next NDC targets

Japan potentially intends to strengthen its NDC in the upcoming five-year increments by contributing to the progress of the three main areas of the GST (mitigation, adaptation, means of implementation, and support) and cross-cutting (UNCC, 2022). The GST's outcome calls on countries to submit their new NDCs before COP30 in 2025. In the next round, countries are expected to update their 2030 targets and share their 2025 targets. The COP28 decision stresses that the new NDCs must be more ambitious since the IPCC finds that limiting warming to 1.5C necessitates reducing GHG emissions by 60% below 2019 levels by 2025. Furthermore, the COP28 outcomes emphasize that the new round of NDCs must boost current actions to reduce emissions across multiple sectors, including priorities for adaptation, just transition efforts, and loss and damage (WRI, 2023).  

Although Japan’s Environment Ministry recorded the lowest level of GHG emissions in fiscal 2022 since it started collecting data in fiscal 1990, the future remains challenging. Without significantly strengthening the NDC, Japan will only achieve a reduction of around 40% by 2030 even if it includes "blue carbon," carbon sequestered by seaweed, into its national emissions inventory submitted to the United Nations (Obayashi, Giseburt; Yuri Group, 2024). Against this background, for mitigation purposes, in 2023, the Japanese government unveiled the Green Transformation (GX) Basic Policy, which is an investment roadmap for a 150 trillion-yen GX investment program that is supposed to span a decade to transform various industrial sectors to contribute to Asian energy transition and achieve carbon neutrality (Influence Map, 2023). In the spring of 2024, the Japanese government announced its plans to revise its strategic energy plan (the seventh plan) and update its national energy outlook for 2040. This outlook will be beneficial in explaining how Japan plans to meet its 2050 carbon neutrality pledge and what its 2035 NDC may look like in contrast to its 2030 NDC (Nakano, 2024). Moreover, during COP28, Japan signed multiple pledges, such as the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge to double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements and to triple global installed renewable energy power generation capacity and the declaration for “tripling nuclear power capacity from 2020 to 2050, recognizing the different domestic circumstances of each participant” (METI, 2023, p. 4). Regarding adaptation, Japan will continue supporting local efforts in climate change adaptation, disaster prevention efforts, promoting adaptation in the Asia-Pacific region, and loss and damage assistance to vulnerable countries. Lastly, Japan will stay proactive in the means of implementation progress in the following areas: 1) adaptation finance, 2) expansion of private finance through the implementation of PA's Article 6, 3) capacity building in developing countries, and 4) cooperation on technology transfer of decarbonization technologies at the regional levels (UNCC, 2022).

Equity issues

Regarding equity consideration, Japan’s economy-side absolute 2030 target is concrete and transparent, based on the accumulation of specific sectoral policies and measures with distinct breakdowns. Undoubtedly, each party's information sharing on each sector in such a manner may help ensure fairness, improve transparency, and perform effective reviews. Such a process will, in turn, promote sector-by-sector actions, leading to fair and efficient GHG reductions (UNFCCC, 2021). 

Conclusion

This article briefly analyzed Japan’s 2021 NDC objectives, mitigation/adaptation strategies, national plans to strengthen future NDC targets, and equity issues from Japan’s perspective. Climate Action Tracker (2023) is still concerned about Japan’s progress, citing the deficiencies of the Green Transformation (GX) Basic Policy, which does not prioritize ambitious decarbonization targets, and the GX Basic Policy, which still promotes the development of so-called “clean coal” technologies in the power sector. Nevertheless, building on the momentum fostered at COP28, Japan, as a developed nation, together with all Parties, currently is determined to engage in all aspects of climate change issues to support the continued success of the GST process.