Fossil fuel transition conference a chance to set new norm

Nearly 50% increase in oil prices in a matter of days. Long lines at the gasoline stations. A four-day work week for government offices.

These are just a few of the impacts of the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the Philippines, arguably the global crisis with the biggest immediate impact on its economy and society since the COVID-19 pandemic. As long as it continues, further strains will be expected to burden the public – from higher costs of consumer goods to higher electricity rates as the nation enters its hottest months of the year.

Similar effects of the conflict in the Middle East are also observed in many countries worldwide. It reveals just how fragile complex multilateral systems truly are from aggressive tactics fueled by geopolitical tensions. From a long-term perspective, it also frighteningly reminds us of how dependent the current global economy is on fossil fuels.

This situation contextualizes the upcoming First International Conference on the Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels (TAFF) in Santa Marta, Colombia, in an additional light, one that makes it even more urgent and significant. It will be conducted after another failure of the UN climate negotiations (COP30) to initiate a true path of shifting from coal, oil, and gas into renewable energy (RE).

Now to the main question, can this TAFF conference even accomplish anything? 

Setting a new norm

This initiative is bound to face skepticism from the get-go about how impactful it can truly be. Aside from the global economy remaining dominated by fossil fuels, other concerns, such as the conference only producing symbolic political declarations and the feasibility of implementing any resulting roadmaps, have validity to them, given how conferences of similar scale have fared in previous years.

Yet these criticisms also fail to account for three points. One, this is part of the growing demand for alternatives to the climate negotiations for accelerating global climate action. Multilateral pledges on workstreams such as food security, energy transition, and forest protection have already emerged in previous COPs, but this conference has the chance to make the biggest long-term impact of them all. 

The group of more than 80 countries that endorsed the initiative at COP30 for this fossil fuel transition roadmap controls nearly 40% of the global Gross Domestic Product, while also having a higher share of renewable energy (RE) in their cumulative total primary energy mix than the global average. Their combined support would certainly make a huge impact on the global energy scene.  

Two, there is strong grassroots support for TAFF. Voices from different communities and organizations – Indigenous Peoples whose lands are destroyed by corporations craving for oil, vulnerable communities tired of repeated losses and damages from extreme weather events, consumers burdened by high costs of electricity and fuel – have aired their enthusiasm for this after years of demanding genuine action.

These are the voices from the ground that the typically “top-down” climate negotiations and many sustainability experts frequently fail to acknowledge, let alone truly include in the discourse. If anyone doubts whether they truly impact global decision-making, never forget that decisions under Loss and Damage and just transition would look very different, if not never have happened, without their influence. 

Three, this conference has the chance to set a new norm – a more proactive switch to actions than words in the global scale. Yes, energy transition of this magnitude and speed would likely take years to decades, but this should have started happening years ago. 

And if we look at what is happening now, a present basically dictated by who controls fossil fuel supply and whose interests are often favored at the expense of everyone else’s, is the current norm any better?

Feasible outcomes

The act of balancing ambition and feasibility has always been a challenge in enabling large-scale climate solutions, given countless differing positions involving States and non-State actors. Yet this is one of the tasks that the upcoming TAFF conference must accomplish. 

This does not mean that ambition must be sacrificed for realistic strategies. The ultimate goal of TAFF is aligned with the ultimate goal of the UNFCCC itself: to mitigate anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Limiting long-term global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is also a non-negotiable, especially amidst growing emissions and resulting losses and damages.

But the conference proper cannot dwell too much on statements about the urgency of enacting a TAFF, as these messages should be a given. Instead, it needs to devote its multi-day schedule to ensuring the development of a collective, concrete, and actionable roadmap.

It goes without saying that this roadmap must fulfill the basic asks – being science-based, 1.5°C-aligned, addressing fossil fuel production and consumption, respectful of being nationally-determined, and anchored on human rights and just transition.  

Yet ensuring feasibility is also vital to not only ensuring the outcomes of this conference would translate into just energy transitions in countries, but also attracting more countries to endorse this multilateral initiative. 

One aspect to be prioritized is finance. Countries must commit to enacting immediate and long-term reforms, including removing fossil fuel subsidies, investment planning for transforming national energy infrastructure, and managing potential stranded assets. This would also depend on how willing developed countries truly are to provide means of implementation to developing nations.

Another aspect is alignment with recent COP decisions. With the insufficient ambition of negotiation outcomes providing the baseline, its outcomes must match the decisions made across multiple workstreams in recent years, namely on the Just Transition Work Programme last year in Brazil and the supposed landmark decision from the Dubai climate talks to enact the TAFF.

The true impact of the upcoming conference in Santa Marta would not be known until years down the line, assuming it produces the aforementioned concrete TAFF roadmap and other desired outcomes. But after decades of destruction and disappointment, it provides another chance to set a new norm that the rest of the world should follow.  

illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the thoughts of leading Sustainability & Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.

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