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🗞️ Driving the news: EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra successfully lobbied Germany’s incoming coalition government to endorse a softened version of the EU’s 2040 climate goal
• By persuading both the Christian Democrats and a hesitant Social Democratic Party (SPD) to support the inclusion of international carbon credits, Hoekstra helped secure backing for the Commission’s 90% emissions reduction target — conditional on the use of such credits
• This endorsement has since become pivotal in shaping EU-level negotiations
🔭 The context: The EU’s 2040 target is a critical midpoint between its binding 2030 emissions goal (–55% from 1990 levels) and its 2050 net-zero ambition
• Hoekstra, aligned with the center-right European People’s Party, engaged directly with German coalition negotiators during talks earlier this year
• His intervention shifted Berlin’s stance, particularly regarding the controversial use of carbon credits — mechanisms previously scrutinized for lacking transparency and integrity
🌍 Why it matters for the planet: Germany’s conditional support could enable the EU to hit its 2040 target partly by financing emission reductions in other countries rather than cutting emissions domestically
• While potentially cost-effective, this approach raises concerns about delaying in-region decarbonization and undermining EU climate leadership
• Ensuring carbon credits are “high-quality, certified and permanent” will be crucial to mitigate reputational and environmental risks
⏭️ What's next: The European Commission is expected to formally present its 2040 climate proposal in July, after delaying its original March timeline due to internal resistance
• Germany’s position — allowing up to 3 percentage points of the 90% reduction to come from international credits — now serves as a reference point
• Other member states, such as France and Poland, have also shown interest, but broader consensus remains uncertain
• Scrutiny will intensify around the criteria for allowable credits and the integrity of the proposed framework
💬 One quote: “Let me just say that the way I read the German coalition agreement is that it has many of the elements of ambition and pragmatism that could also inspire others in Europe.” — Wopke Hoekstra, EU Climate Commissioner
📈 One stat: Germany’s proposal permits up to 3 percentage points of the EU’s 90% emissions reduction target to be met via international carbon credits — equating to 3.3% of the EU’s total 1990 emissions baseline
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