After COP30: The masks fall, the alliance of the willing and companies offer hope

The deafening absence of the United States, led by a cynical climate denier who ignores science, combined with the firm positions of oil-producing countries and those still heavily dependent on coal, like India, did the rest. So in the end, setting aside any hypocrisy, those who needed to drop their masks have dropped them. And among them, unfortunately, is Meloni's Italy — the only EU country, alongside Poland, to oppose any roadmap that defines a clear plan for phasing out fossil fuels over time.

But as I said, this COP was strange. It didn't end with only bad news. We must also note China's quiet restraint. While China didn't strengthen negotiations by taking a clear position in this climate of distrust toward multilateral processes, it demonstrated through actions that the energy transition, driven by technological innovation, is very strong and advancing rapidly. China has become the global leader in electrification and renewables.

By the end of last year, China had installed 887 gigawatts of solar photovoltaic capacity — nearly double the combined total in Europe and the United States. It produced 1,826 terawatt-hours of wind and solar energy in 2024. In short, we can see where strategic investments in new technologies for the energy transition are taking China.

Ultimately, Belém could mark a positive milestone in humanity's effort to contain and stop global warming. Furthermore, an alliance of committed countries has formed — a "Mutirão" (an indigenous term meaning "collective effort") — that is conscious and innovative, led by Colombia and Belgium. This alliance announced an international conference next year focused on roadmaps for phasing out fossil fuels. Europe will play a crucial role (and it would be terrible if Italy were to hinder this effort, too). This is an alliance of countries that recognize the strength of this alternative economic and industrial model. Therefore, the rapid development of new clean technologies will soon create a parallel track to the COP process. In short, a spirit of survival and reaction seems to be prevailing.

This spirit is especially evident in the business and finance world, which is driven not by ideology but by risk mitigation and the potential returns from the transition. While those resisting change are motivated by power dynamics and ideological prejudices, the energy transition is accelerating. Even COP30 in Belém had to acknowledge this, even as it committed to tripling funding for countries most impacted by climate change and introduced a Global Implementation Accelerator to strengthen the execution of National Adaptation Plans.

The willingness of businesses and capital markets to finance the transition has become the most important ally for decarbonization. This momentum must push those working daily in global impact finance and ESG to develop proposals for how these tools can be incentivized.

In the end, we predicted this would happen — that the era of hypocrisy was over. Countries whose economies depend on fossil fuels or the consumption of coal, gas, and oil could no longer speak one way at COPs while acting the opposite way. So what now? Do COPs still make sense?

I don't think they do — at least not in their current form. Certainly, climate negotiations in this geopolitical context are no longer fit for purpose, but taking stock annually remains useful. In 30 years, we haven't achieved the goal — that's true. But now it's clear that the most committed and forward-thinking countries want to, and must, accelerate and move forward rather than seek unanimous agreements, even with those ideologically defending an old world.