Energy at a crossroads: navigating uncertain futures
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If there is one thing recent events have made clear, it is that energy security and geopolitics are now inseparable. The war in Ukraine, once a regional conflict, has rippled across the world, driving energy price volatility, supply chain disruptions, and a frantic reordering of global alliances. The knock-on effects of this crisis, paired with economic turbulence in China, increasing trade barriers, and intensifying climate disasters, have left businesses and governments scrambling for long-term energy solutions in a world that refuses to stand still.
Take, for example, the high-profile meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy—a supposed diplomatic effort that quickly devolved into political theatrics. It was a stark reminder of how fragile international relationships are, especially when energy and critical resources are involved. Just a few years ago, Zelenskyy and Putin were set to discuss a minerals trade deal—a deal that could have stabilized supply chains and reshaped the European energy map. Instead, war broke out. The result? Europe, desperate to break free from Russian gas, faced skyrocketing energy prices, rationing, and an urgent push toward renewables.
Meanwhile, global energy markets remain vulnerable to cascading disruptions. Houthi attacks on shipping routes in the Red Sea are delaying fuel supplies. China’s economic downturn, combined with rising U.S. and European tariffs, threatens clean energy manufacturing. And across the West, populist movements are putting pressure on policymakers to prioritize national interests over global energy cooperation.
We are at a strategic inflection point. The choices made today will shape whether the future is one of fragmented energy blocs, where every country fights for its own security, or one of market-driven innovation, where new technologies and business models accelerate the energy transition.
In such a turbulent world, traditional energy forecasting is obsolete. Rigid, linear projections cannot account for wars, supply chain crises, or political realignments. Instead, businesses and policymakers need a tool that embraces uncertainty, tests strategies against different possibilities, and builds resilience into decision-making.
That tool is scenario planning—a strategic framework that prepares for multiple energy futures, rather than relying on outdated assumptions about a single “most likely” path forward.
Energy transitions have never been purely technological. They are shaped by politics, economics, and social forces—all of which are in flux. The old method of making energy plans based on past trends no longer works. We need to think in scenarios, preparing for multiple potential futures rather than clinging to a single, fragile expectation.
One of the most effective frameworks for scenario planning today comes from the World Energy Council’s 2024 “Rocks and Rivers” scenarios. These two divergent futures provide a blueprint for how energy transitions might unfold in a deeply divided world.
The Rocks and Rivers framework explores two starkly different ways the energy transition could unfold. One is driven by nationalist energy policies and trade wars; the other by market forces and technological breakthroughs.
1. “Rocks”: A World of Fragmentation and Energy Nationalism
In this scenario, energy becomes a tool of geopolitical leverage. Governments hoard resources, restrict trade, and reinforce national energy production, often at the cost of climate commitments. Instead of global cooperation, the world splinters into self-interested energy blocs, with each country prioritizing security over sustainability.
Key Features of the “Rocks” Scenario:
Real-World Signals of the “Rocks” Future:
In this future, energy transitions happen unevenly, dictated by political allegiances rather than economic or environmental necessity.
2. “Rivers”: A Market-Driven Energy Transition
The Rivers scenario imagines a world where market forces and decentralized cooperation drive rapid energy transitions. Instead of waiting for governments to act, businesses, investors, and consumers accelerate the shift toward renewables and efficiency.
Key Features of the “Rivers” Scenario:
Real-World Signals of the “Rivers” Future:
This world moves faster toward decarbonization, but it also risks deepening inequality if governments fail to ensure fair access to clean energy.
The world is currently caught between these two scenarios.
This mix of trends makes scenario-based planning even more critical.
The world is at an energy crossroads. Whether we enter a “Rocks” era of nationalism and fragmentation or a “Rivers” era of market-driven acceleration depends on the choices made today.
For businesses and governments, waiting is not an option. Those who invest in resilience, alliances, and adaptive strategies will be the ones shaping the future of energy—not just reacting to it.
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