Decarbonisation's blind spot: The geopolitical pivot and ASEAN strategy

This article is the second part of a two-piece series. Here, you can find Part 1

IV. Geopolitical pivot: CCE, energy equity, and unlocking biogenic assets in the Global South

A. Pivoting from fossil fuels: CCE as a tool for just transition

The CCE provides a route to energy access and economic progress for emerging economies and the Global South that avoids the environmental drawbacks of conventional fossil fuel-based industrialisation. Addressing methane emissions is a crucial part of climate action in these areas. Methane is one of the quickest drivers of the climate problem, with scientists estimating that it accounts for about one-third of the current global warming. Without action, methane emissions from poorly managed landfills — which are frequently linked to fast urbanisation and insufficient waste infrastructure — are expected to treble by 2050. This pressing worldwide issue is highlighted by the discovery of ongoing methane super-emitter leaks from landfills in locations like Madrid.   

By combining renewable gas (RG) and waste-to-energy (WtE) technologies, the CCE framework directly solves this issue. These technologies reduce landfill volumes, stop powerful methane leaks, and provide renewable energy to local communities, improving energy security. They do this by turning non-recyclable garbage and biogenic leftovers into useful resources. The key to a just transition is this localised energy production based on waste liability management, which turns long-standing social burdens into sustainable infrastructure assets. 

B. Maximizing biogenic feedstocks: Unlocking energy from waste

The vast biogenic carbon resources found in the agricultural economies of the Global South and ASEAN can be strategically utilised within the CCE. These resources consist of bagasse, rice husks, and agricultural waste. 

Immediate environmental and socioeconomic advantages are offered by localised CCE solutions:

• Anaerobic digestion: Completes the nutrient loop in farming by turning agricultural waste into biogas (for cooking, heating, and lighting) and slurry, which is used as valuable liquid fertiliser. 

• Biomass combustion and gasification: Bagasse and other industrial trash are burned to provide distant enterprises with heat and electricity. The biomass market in Southeast Asia was estimated to be worth $3.68 billion USD in 2023 and is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.9% until 2030. There are "fewer imports of fossil fuels and agricultural nutrients... and local job opportunities" when this local resource is used.

Table IV.1: Strategic CCE pathways: Unlocking value from biogenic waste in the Global South

V. Regional resilience: CCE’s strategic blueprint for ASEAN and SIDS

A. The regional context: High growth, high vulnerability

Rapid urbanisation and industrialisation are the main causes of the ASEAN region's rising energy demand. The biomass market in Southeast Asia is expected to grow at a high rate of 11.9% CAGR, which highlights the fact that biomass energy is widely acknowledged as a vital and accessible substitute for fossil fuels. The fact that China plans to build 50 GW of biomass capacity by 2030 further emphasises how important biomass is to the Asia-Pacific energy mix. 

B. The CCE imperative for ASEAN member states: Systemic resilience and biogenic assets

The CCE is a crucial, non-negotiable strategic framework that ASEAN member nations must adhere to in order to guarantee long-term energy security, economic resilience, and inclusive, sustainable growth. ASEAN must incorporate circular economy initiatives into its energy and climate strategy in order to meet its goals for energy security and carbon neutrality. For ASEAN's sizable industrial and agricultural base to meet its NDCs, the CCE offers the comprehensive strategy required to address the remaining 45% of emissions linked to materials and waste.

The ASEAN Bio-Circular-Green (BCG) Economy Model is based on CCE principles, which use innovation and technology to improve resource efficiency and attain energy security.

C. Case study: Singapore (SIDS) as a low-carbon technology accelerator

As a significant SIDS, Singapore offers a clear illustration of the need for CCE in economies with severe resource constraints. Because of its low average wind speed (about 2 m/s), the country is "alternative energy disadvantaged" — importing almost all of its energy and having few practical domestic alternatives. As a result, Singapore's Long-Term Low-Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) strategically views CCUS technologies and the import of low-carbon hydrogen as essential.

Singapore: The ideal regional catalyst for green investment

Four important reasons make Singapore the perfect place to lead ASEAN in green investment and technology translation:

1. Mandate driven innovation: An early and aggressive adoption of concentrated, high-tech CCE solutions (CCUS and PtX for e-fuels) is required due to its status as a SIDS with severe resource shortages. This technological specialisation transcends national boundaries. 

2. Financial and regulatory hub: Southeast Asia requires $172 billion in investment opportunities annually and $54 billion in capital investment for the creation of jobs in the circular economy. Singapore's established position as a major financial and trading hub in Asia offers the necessary infrastructure to draw in and direct this enormous amount of green investment.

3. Policy certainty and standardisation: The private sector requires clear, long-term legislative certainty to speed up technology implementation and regional pilot projects, which is provided by national commitments such as the Zero Waste Nation vision and the LEDS goals (33 MtCO2e by 2050).

4. Technological translation and export: Singapore creates the required business models and technological standards by becoming the first to deploy CCUS and PtX locally. By exporting expertise and synthesised e-fuels, for example, it transforms its role from being entirely dependent on imported energy to becoming an important regional hub for the future carbon-neutral commodity market. 

Table V.1: Singapore’s CCE strategy: Technology and policy alignment for a resource-constrained SIDS

D. Macroeconomic benefits: Investment, job creation, and balance of payments

It is anticipated that the CCE framework's adoption throughout ASEAN will yield significant macroeconomic advantages.

Table V.2: Summary of macroeconomic and fiscal benefits of CCE adoption

1. Driving economic growth and job creation

Over a 25-year period, a circular economy transition in Asia may result in 1.5 million new jobs and $324 billion in economic growth. By 2030, a green recovery strategy in Southeast Asia might create over 30 million jobs. These investments are motivated by financial goals, such as enhancing production efficiency and securing access to energy and raw materials.

2. Improvement in the balance of payments (BOP) and energy security

CCE provides a vital route for East Asian economies that depend on energy imports to lessen their dependency on the erratic global commodity markets. According to a quick transition scenario, Southeast Asia's yearly fossil fuel import costs are expected to reach a peak of $140 billion around 2030 and then fall to less than $90 billion by 2050, which is one-third of the business-as-usual estimate. High energy use has long been shown to "negatively affect trade balance" in economies in East Asia. Systemic gains in national trade accounts are achieved by ASEAN member states through localising energy generation through indigenous biogenic waste and optimising resource efficiency.

VI. Conclusion and policy recommendations for systemic change

A. Summary of the paradigm shift

By neglecting the systemic effects of material production, waste management, and land use, the limiting focus on "decarbonisation" has hampered the global climate effort. Carbon circulation — an economic necessity — replaces the philosophical impossibility of carbon eradication as the basic conceptual shift. The CCE offers the only comprehensive economic framework that can handle all of the world's greenhouse gas emissions. 

Rethinking the Carbon Ecosystem: The Significant Effect on Ambition for Sustainable Economic Growth

Because it shifts the primary economic engine from a linear, extractive model to a regenerative, self-sustaining one, reimagining the carbon ecosystem has a profound effect.

For nations in the Global South and Asia, the radical impact is realized by:

1. Asset conversion: Converting long-term environmental liabilities (industrial CO2, waste) into ongoing, domestic energy and material resources (graphene composites, biogas, and e-fuels).

2. Technological leapfrogging: Avoiding the need for polluting developing phases by using advanced synthetic routes (PtL) to produce energy-dense, carbon-neutral fuels that are compatible with current infrastructure (shipping, aviation). 

Thus, the CCE framework serves as the foundation for a holistic response to resource shortages and climate change. However, this systemic change cannot be successful on its own. Deep regional and global cooperation is required to achieve the lofty goals of net-zero and resource resilience. This includes getting international funding for green initiatives, promoting open and responsible trading capacities, and harmonising circular product standards within ASEAN.

The CCE framework, which combines advanced technology (PtL, graphene), economic value retention (45% emissions gap), and indigenous resource utilisation (biogenic assets in the Global South), is therefore the foundation for a complete solution to climate change and resource constraint. However, this systemic change cannot be achieved in a vacuum. The ambitious objectives of resource resilience and net-zero demand close regional and global collaboration, from securing international funding for green projects to promoting transparent and accountable trade capacities to standardising circular product standards throughout ASEAN. The Asia-Pacific region can only successfully manage existential climate risks and usher in a new era of resilient, regenerative, and inclusive economic growth by means of this coordinated, international endeavour, which is supported by a common commitment to carbon circulation.

Conclusion (Part 2)

The only all-encompassing and strategically sound plan for the Asia-Pacific region to safeguard its economic future and meet net-zero goals is the Carbon Circular Economy. The framework's simultaneous potential to pioneer cutting-edge technology solutions (PtX for import independence) and harness indigenous, biogenic wealth (converting methane-emitting waste into electricity and fertiliser) accounts for its radical impact. This directly translates into fiscal security for energy-dependent regions such as Southeast Asia, reducing the estimated annual cost of fossil fuel imports, which could reach USD 200 billion by the middle of the century. Only by persistent multilateralism and cooperation — which ensures standards harmonisation and capacity building across all ASEAN Member States — can this comprehensive solution — which calls for integrated policy across energy, material usage, and trade — be implemented.

illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of leading Sustainability & Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.

See how the companies in your sector perform on sustainability. On illuminem’s Data Hub™, access emissions data, ESG performance, and climate commitments for thousands of industrial players across the globe.