Could Trump’s tariffs slow emissions? Sure, experts say, but at great cost overall

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🗞️ Driving the news: President Donald Trump’s newly imposed global tariffs—including import taxes exceeding 100% on Chinese goods—could temporarily reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by dampening international trade
• However, climate experts warn that these short-term reductions come at the cost of long-term progress, particularly by hindering access to clean energy technologies critical to the global energy transition.

🔭 The context: During economic downturns like the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2009 financial crisis, global emissions dropped, but quickly rebounded
• Today, over 80% of the world’s solar panels and grid-scale batteries are produced in China
• By targeting Chinese imports, Trump’s trade policies are inflating prices for clean technologies, undermining key components of U.S. decarbonization efforts including solar, wind, battery storage, and electric vehicles

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: While emissions may drop by an estimated 1% in the short term, experts agree this is neither sustainable nor structurally meaningful
• Tariffs could delay or cancel renewable energy projects and lead to increased reliance on fossil fuels, particularly in the power and transport sectors
• The cost volatility and investment uncertainty generated by these policies risk locking the U.S. into high-emissions infrastructure for decades

⏭️ What's next: The energy sector now faces rising costs and project delays as investors reassess the economic viability of clean energy developments
• Policy experts suggest the tariff hikes could erode progress made under previous climate strategies by Biden’s administration
• If clean technologies remain less accessible due to trade barriers, the U.S. risks falling behind on its 2030 and 2050 climate goals, with broader implications for global climate cooperation

💬 One quote: “Any emissions reduction would be temporary… we really haven’t done anything meaningful to address climate issues,” – Rob Jackson, Chair, Global Carbon Project

📈 One stat: Grid-scale battery prices could rise by 55% under full U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports—jeopardizing clean energy integration and decarbonization strategies

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