COP30: Unwrapping the future of plastics and climate

COP30: What it is and why it matters

The “Conference of the Parties” (COP) is the most important public event for global climate ambition. You would think that the commitments made at COP cannot simply be ignored or brushed aside. But whether the outcomes live up to expectations remains to be seen. So, what exactly are those expectations?

By 2024, humanity had reached a historic point: for the first time, the world must acknowledge that the 1.5°C target has been missed. This setback is unsurprising, given the contradictions of past COP events and the widely criticised presence of fossil fuel lobbyists, with some reports stating that the number of lobbyists surpasses all other delegations. COP28 focused strongly on phasing out fossil fuels, yet it was held in Dubai, UAE — one of the world’s strongholds of the fossil fuel industry. Does the climate target miss remain a shock, or is it a self-fulfilling prophecy? The United States has stepped back from leadership after signalling a withdrawal from the Paris Agreement earlier this year. The EU, once a leader in climate efforts, now seems passive in comparison. In their place, China and Brazil are emerging as influential voices in global sustainability diplomacy.

But let’s not only focus on the downsides of greenwashing at an event originally created to raise awareness and offer a platform for climate negotiations. COP provides a stage for youth inspiration, drives economic transformation, and fosters climate deals. It’s a pathway for positive values to spread across communities and organisations. Even if just a few hundred future leaders return from COP with a green idea and renewed motivation to support the economic transformation, I see real value in the event. I recall hearing Professor Muhammad Yunus speak for the first time — an experience that shaped my lifelong commitment to equitable, green economic transformation. COP carries that same potential.

Brazil has organised a new format for COP30, intending to shift the focus from typical discussions on commitments to more practical conversations about implementation. Brazil has separated the usual pre-summit side events: the green financiers’ meeting in São Paulo, the local leaders’ gathering in Rio de Janeiro, and the world leaders’ discussions in Belém for the main negotiations.

Week 1 was dedicated to negotiators outlining priorities, exploring alliances, and for governments and companies to announce funding pledges and climate action plans. Notably, loud voices from BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) accused Western economies — especially those that still leverage an economic prosperity built on centuries of colonial exploitation — of blaming emerging economies for their ecological externalities while failing to provide sufficient climate financing. Developing countries point to broken promises from Western nations, with the insufficient NCQG (new collective quantified goal) of USD 300 billion per year increasingly offered as debt financing rather than the necessary grant financing.

In Week 2, ministers and senior officials were tasked with resolving disputes, negotiating final decisions, and agreeing on technical and legal frameworks. So, what were the key negotiation themes, and which commitments can we expect to see?

Negotiation themes

The most anticipated outcome of the COP30 negotiations is an update of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) with higher emission-reduction ambitions. Brazil itself has committed to reducing emissions by 59% to 67% by 2035. The geography, demographics, and economics of countries frame their capacity and the nature of their contributions. While some countries are forced to strengthen their own resilience to climate shocks, others are held accountable for closing the funding gaps for developing nations. Globally, countries view carbon markets as vital tools to mobilise private resources. Brazil has committed to protecting the Amazon and mobilising resources for forest and biodiversity protection, using the Amazon rainforest as COP30’s central symbol and call to action. Unlike previous COP events, COP30 focuses on practical execution, emphasising that this shift must be both socially and economically inclusive.

Plastics circularity

GreenForest Solutions is a member of the Business Coalition for a Global Plastics Treaty and a strong supporter of the United Nations’ negotiations. The company provides expert insights from value chains in the Global South, working with both upstream and downstream plastics industries to adopt the treaty’s proposed requirements.

While waste and its mismanagement significantly contribute to global GHG emissions, it is often overlooked next to the mainstream carbon topic. However, one waste issue that has gained traction in both business and consumer circles is plastic pollution — likely because of its visibility as an eyesore in natural environments. What many don’t realise is that the plastics economy accounts for 4 to 10% of global crude oil extraction and is responsible for an estimated 3.4% of global GHG emissions. Plastic production is intrinsically linked to the petroleum industry, and phasing out fossil fuels requires addressing global plastic consumption.

So, what was discussed at COP30 about recycled plastic?

COP30’s location in Brazil provides a compelling context for plastics circularity. Brazil is home to many vocal Indigenous communities, who were seen protesting at COP30 sites, urging negotiators to strengthen climate commitments and protect fragile ecosystems. Their fight centres on land rights and the health of nature, but what many don’t realise is that Indigenous communities are linked to plastics circularity (or plastic waste management), particularly in marginalised regions of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. These communities often find themselves working in recycling or waste management. Globally, an estimated 19 to 24 million waste workers collect, process, and reprocess plastics to reintroduce secondary raw materials into the circular economy for plastics. These marginalised communities form the backbone of plastic waste management in the Global South, making COP30’s central theme of inclusion especially relevant to this industry.

Plastics are a critical issue that always draws attention due to their visibility. With the ongoing drama surrounding the failure of renewed UN global plastics treaty negotiations and the global recycling industries’ struggle with higher prices for recycled plastic compared to virgin plastics, the industry we once thought would steadily grow until 2030 is now faltering.

COP30 circularity outcome: Global Circularity Protocol for Business (GCP)

The GCP debuted at COP30, launched by the World Business Council for Sustainable Development in partnership with the One Planet Network and hosted by the United Nations Environment Programme. What is it?

It’s a science-based framework to measure, improve, and communicate material circularity for large enterprises in manufacturing industries. Interestingly, the GCP was developed with input from over 80 global players across industries, which — despite potential lobby influence — suggests broader industry adoption. The GCP includes plastics. Yet despite its significance at COP30 and its potential to support 100 to 200 billion tonnes of material savings (according to the consortium’s estimates), it remains a voluntary business framework.

Despite the GCP being a major circularity outcome of COP30, offering means for measurement and benchmarking — thus reducing greenwashing — it’s still not a legally binding instrument to curb plastic pollution. As of COP30’s conclusion on 21st November, no major steps have been taken toward production caps on virgin plastic or lifecycle controls. The plastics sector continues to rely heavily on fossil fuels for virgin polymer production, putting systemic pressure on planetary boundaries. Petro-states, including Brazil, have shown little interest in endorsing production caps or stronger circular economy policies. Our global focus on collection and recycling remains insufficient, and without upstream production controls, the waste problem cannot be tackled.

However, even with this negative assessment, I remain optimistic about the opportunities for businesses — especially service providers like producer responsibility organisations. They can expand their service offerings with upstream business models, phase-out advisory, and circular economy integration, as opposed to the currently prevailing linear downcycling.

But even if concluding this article with a negative assessment about COP30, I do believe there is a meaningful opportunity for business, especially for service providers like producer responsibility organisations, who can expand their service portfolio with upstream business models, bespoke phase-out advisory, and circular economy integration instead of the currently prevailing linear downcycling.

As CEO of GreenForest Solutions GmbH, a signatory of the Business Coalition for a Global Plastics Treaty and provider of solutions for plastic circularity, I am optimistic. While global politics, from Washington to Berlin, turns inward toward protectionism and reindustrialisation, it is the young and future-oriented innovators, with a renewed care for our interrelationship with nature, who will continue driving economic transformation. The human motivation to preserve a planet that provides a home for all life on Earth will persist. And there is an exponentially growing number of young executives across the plastics value chain — from production to waste management — who will bring this change.

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