COP29: Reform or retreat?

As COP29 unfolds in Azerbaijan, the global climate community faces a pivot point. With the summit concluding this Friday on the last COP with meaningful involvement from the US for some time to come, the urgency for meaningful action has never been greater. Yet, we have a full house of the ‘issues with COP’: fossil fuel influence, slow implementation, and a widening gap between ambition and reality.

This isn’t a new story, post COP27, I described the annual climate summit as a symbolic exercise and called for reforms. I wasn’t alone then and the voices demanding overhaul are getting ever stronger. An open letter from the Club of Rome this week signed by leaders like Christiana Figueres, Kate Raworth and Johan Rockström has called for urgent reform, highlights the current COP framework is underperforming and, without change, risks losing its relevance entirely.

In this article, I’ll discuss some of the issues facing the process and make the case to reform, rather than scrap, the process.

The COP’s credibility crisis

Controversy and COPs are frequent bedfellows but COP29 takes it to another level. Azerbaijan, a nation whose economy is heavily tied to fossil fuels was always going to have a tension between the summit’s goals and its host’s immediate economic interests. The nation’s president’s assertion that oil and gas are a “gift from God” hardly helps improve the impression of the host’s climate bonefides and accusations of using the conference to do fossil fuel deals has turns concerns about how seriously it is taking its leadership role into something approaching panic. The host holds the pen and guides the conversation. No one should underestimated how important the host nation is.

The controversies of the current COP are just the icing on the cake of a series of historic issues which undermine the credibility of the process. Since its inception in 1995, atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased by about 17% and annual global CO₂ emissions have risen by more than 60%. While agreements like the Paris Accord and the UAE consensus represent progress, the framework has so far failed to deliver the rapid decarbonisation needed to keep global warming below 1.5°C. 

The challenge of consensus

 COP’s most significant challenge lies in its consensus-driven approach. Every participating nation, from those at war to those economically dependent on fossil fuels, must agree for decisions to be adopted. This system ensures global buy-in but also slows progress, as such it often results in compromises that reflect the lowest common denominator

COP: Should act as the floor, not the ceiling

 COP represents the global minimum, the floor of what all nations can agree upon. It is not good enough, ambitious enough, or urgent enough. But it is something. And in a global crisis, something is far better than nothing. COP provides a framework upon which more ambitious national policies, corporate initiatives, and grassroots movements can build.

The looming shadow of a second Trump presidency

Withdrawing from the Paris Agreement will take effect in 12 months. From that point, the U.S. would be unable to influence or participate in negotiations. That decision is reversible by a future president so at best we have 4 years without the US. If Trump elects to leave the underlying framework, it would take a supermajority in the senate to get back in. A whole different ballgame. 

Beyond these actions, Trump could also undermine multilateral development banks and the UN system itself. It is worth noting that the U.S. contributes roughly one-fifth of the budget to the UN. 

The international community must act decisively at COP29. It may be our last opportunity to secure ambitious agreements while the U.S. remains an active participant.

The case for COP reform

 The COP process is unique, there is no platform where all voices convene to discuss the greatest challenge of our generation. The fact that COP agreements happen at all is extraordinary. When I began studying climate change in the late-1990s, renewable energy was ‘alternative’, electric vehicles were seen as impractical, and discussions about air travel, meat consumption, or loss and damage were taboo. Today, these issues are central to the climate conversation, and COP has played an important role in this shift

Progress is far too slow but reform is possible. The open letter from the Club of Rome outlines a clear path for reform. 

Key recommendations include:

     1. Stricter Criteria for Host Nations: Only countries demonstrating climate leadership should host COP.

     2. Curbing Fossil Fuel Influence: Greater transparency is needed to reduce the sway of fossil fuel interests.

     3. Smaller, Action-Oriented Summits: More frequent, focused meetings could accelerate progress by emphasising implementation over negotiation.

     4. Enhanced Accountability Mechanisms: Countries must face real consequences for failing to meet their commitments, backed by standardised definitions of climate finance and rigorous reporting.

Yes, yes, yes and absolutely yes.

Reform, not retreat

Despite its flaws, COP remains indispensable. It is the only global forum where nations come together to address the climate crisis. There is no alternative of comparable scale or influence.

COP needs reform. But it also needs protection. It is our best hope for coordinated global action, and with the right changes, it can deliver the transformative outcomes the world urgently needs. 

Do I think they will happen? Yes, Mother Nature’s increasingly loud messages will ultimately force us to pay attention and reform will happen. Will it be soon enough to stave off the worst impacts of climate change? That depends on us making our voices heard.

I’ll leave you with a final thought, I don’t usually comment on whether something is a divine blessing or not but I’ll make an exception here. In spite of the President of Azerbaijan’s words, Fossil fuels aren't gifts of god. They are better thought of as the modern equivalent of the forbidden fruit, offering immediate benefits like energy and wealth but at the cost of long-term environmental degradation. Just as the forbidden fruit led to exile from Eden, our over reliance on fossil fuels threatens the precious home we all share.

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