Climate migration: Examples of countries preparing for resettlement

Planned climate migration is the displacement of communities and entire nations caused by the gradual deterioration of living conditions due to climate change. Unlike short-term evacuations following disasters, such displacements are systemic in nature, involving flooding, catastrophic droughts, resource depletion, and infrastructure destruction.

According to the UN, the rate of sea level rise has doubled since the 1990s due to the greenhouse effect. Projections indicate that by 2100, areas currently home to over 200 million people could be permanently underwater. We highlight the regions that could be devastated by climate change in the near future.

Tuvalu

The first example of climate migration of an entire country was the mass displacement of residents of Tuvalu. The people of this Pacific island nation are finding it increasingly difficult to cope with the effects of climate change. The average land height here is about two meters, so every storm or high tide threatens flooding.

In recent decades, sea levels have risen by approximately 15 cm, leading to the destruction of Tuvalu’s infrastructure, contamination of drinking water supplies, and a threat to food security. If this trend continues, up to 95% of the country’s territory could be underwater by the end of the century.

Video address by Simon Coffee, Tuvalu’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, at the 2021 UN conference (Photo: Ministry of Justice, Communication and Foreign Affairs, Tuvalu Government on Facebook)

Against this backdrop, in 2023, the country signed an agreement with Australia that, for the first time in world history, legally established the ability to resettle an entire nation for climate-related reasons. The program provides for the issuance of up to 280 climate visas per year. By mid-2025, approximately 9,000 applications had been submitted  —  almost the entire adult population of the country. Resettlement is voluntary and is distributed through an electronic lottery to ensure equal opportunity. Tuvaluans who receive an Australian visa can count on permanent residence, work, and access to education and healthcare in Australia.

At the same time, authorities are creating a “digital copy” of their homeland. As part of the “Digital Nation” project, Tuvalu’s islands and cultural sites are being scanned and 3D-recorded to preserve the memory of the country after its disappearance. The status of a nation without territory is a question the international community has yet to answer.

Maldives

The Maldives is an archipelago in the Indian Ocean consisting of more than 1,100 islands. The average land elevation here is only 1.5 meters above sea level. Rising oceans make the country one of the most vulnerable: salinization of freshwater sources reduces access to water, storms and soil erosion destroy infrastructure, and habitable land is becoming increasingly scarce.

For the past decade, the government and scientists have been discussing scenarios for the relocation of the entire nation. Among the leading options is the purchase of land in Australia and India. At the same time, a legal framework is being developed that will help maintain sovereignty in the event of the loss of the archipelago. To partially compensate for the loss of land and slow the rate of population outflow, the state is investing in the construction of artificial islands.

The artificial island of Thilafushi (Photo: Wikipedia)

Kiribati

Kiribati is a Pacific nation of 33 atolls (coral islands), most of which may be underwater as early as the 21st century. The average land height here is less than two meters, and erosion and flooding are annually reducing habitable areas.

As recently as 15 years ago, the Kiribati government planned to build artificial islands in place of the lost islands, using floating oil platform technology. However, the plan proved unrealistic due to the high costs. Then, in 2014, the country acquired a plot of land in Fiji covering approximately 20 square kilometers. The purchase became a strategic reserve in case the native islands disappear.

Kiribati places special emphasis on programs to develop biodiversity and preserve the identity of future diasporas  —  their native languages ​​and traditions.

Bangladesh

Located in the delta of two of South Asia’s largest rivers, the Ganges and the Brahmaputra, Bangladesh experiences annual floods, typhoons, and coastal erosion. Most of the displaced people migrate within the country: up to 400,000 people annually migrate from coastal areas along the Bay of Bengal to Dhaka, the capital. This influx leads to overcrowding, rising prices, and increased competition for jobs.

Workers waiting for a river crossing (Photo: Mahmud Hossain Opu)

According to World Bank projections, the number of internal climate migrants in Bangladesh could reach 20 million by 2050. To partially alleviate the pressure on megacities, the government is creating new settlements in areas less vulnerable to climate change.

The Sahel region

The Sahel is one of Africa’s most climate-challenged regions. Mali, Niger, Chad, and Sudan, which comprise the region, face prolonged droughts and desertification, leading to the disappearance of water sources and the destruction of traditional agriculture. As a result, residents of entire villages are forced to abandon their homes.

A woman waters plants in the Ouallam district, Niger (Photo: UNHCR / Colin Delfosse)

The struggle for land and water is intensifying competition between communities. Resource conflicts are becoming a major driver of displacement and undermining security throughout the region.

UN and African Union programs are working to stabilize the situation in the Sahel. They aim to adapt rural areas to climate change, develop alternative livelihoods, and provide humanitarian support to displaced people. Particular attention is being paid to the legal registration of migrant status, both within countries and at borders.

What’s next

The displacement of Tuvalu residents is the first case of mass climate-related migration in modern history. Previously, discussions focused only on localized displacements following natural disasters; now, governments across the globe will have to work together to develop programs that span decades.

International law is not yet prepared for such scenarios. The Refugee Convention doesn’t take climate-related factors into account, so international organizations are discussing the creation of climate visas and special statuses for displaced persons. The fate of millions of people depends on how quickly these mechanisms are implemented.

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