China’s secret weapon in the trade war

illuminem summarises for you the essential news of the day. Read the full piece on The Economist or enjoy below:

🗞️ Driving the news: Facing 145% tariffs on exports to the U.S., China's manufacturing sector is under severe pressure, threatening millions of jobs
• However, China’s gig economy — including delivery services, ride-hailing, and online platforms — is absorbing much of the labor market shock, offering displaced workers an alternative source of income and cushioning immediate unemployment risks

🔭 The context: The U.S.-China trade war has intensified in 2025 under Donald Trump’s second term, with sweeping tariffs severely restricting Chinese access to American markets
• China's previous strategy of relying on robust exports for economic growth is now under threat
• In parallel, the domestic gig economy has exploded in size over the past decade, creating flexible work opportunities that are now proving vital in maintaining employment levels during this economic adjustment

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: A shift from manufacturing to service-based gig work could reduce China's industrial carbon footprint marginally in the short term
• However, long-term reliance on precarious employment without parallel investment in green manufacturing may undermine broader sustainability goals, including equitable economic development and the green transition of China’s industrial base

⏭️ What's next: Chinese policymakers are expected to expand support for the gig economy while simultaneously working to stabilize manufacturing through domestic stimulus and new export markets
• The structural challenge remains: ensuring that the transition to new forms of employment does not lead to widespread underemployment or social unrest
• Global supply chains may continue to adjust, with sustainability standards and resilience becoming key factors in sourcing decisions

💬 One quote: “The gig economy is becoming China’s pressure valve in this trade war,” — an economist at a major Chinese think tank

📈 One stat: Nomura projects that up to 15.8 million Chinese jobs could be lost over the long term due to the ongoing trade tensions

See on illuminem's Data Hub™ the sustainability performance of BYD and its peers and CATL, and Mercedes-benz

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