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🗞️ Driving the news: A new analysis from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), published by Carbon Brief, finds that China’s carbon emissions have been flat or falling for the past 18 months — raising the question of whether the world’s largest emitter has already reached its long-anticipated emissions peak
🔭 The context: Since March 2024, China’s emissions have stopped rising even as electricity demand has surged
• Massive deployment of renewables (240 GW solar and 61 GW wind added in the first three quarters of 2025) and rapid EV adoption have kept power-sector emissions flat
• Heavy-industry emissions (cement, metals, steel) also declined, though growth in chemical production offset some gains
🌍 Why it matters for the planet: If sustained, this would mark the first annual decline in China’s CO₂ emissions in 2025, a milestone with global significance given the country accounts for 30% of global emissions
• Peaking earlier than expected would ease pressure on the remaining global carbon budget and reshape COP30 negotiations — though China is still off-track on its 2020–2025 carbon-intensity target
⏭️ What’s next: China’s 2035 climate plan pledges a 7–10% reduction in net emissions from peak levels. COP30 leaders praised China’s renewable expansion, calling its solar scale-up a global public good
• Future emissions will hinge on whether clean-energy growth continues to outpace industrial expansion, especially petrochemicals
💬 One quote: “While a 1% rise or fall may seem minor, the symbolism is enormous — China left room for emissions to grow for years.” — Lauri Myllyvirta, CREA
📈 One stat: Electricity generation from solar rose 46% in Q3 2025, helping push oil-related transport emissions down 5% year-on-year
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