Brazil’s oil production expected to disappoint

illuminem summarizes for you the essential news of the day. Read the full piece on The Wall Street Journal or enjoy below:

🗞️ Driving the news: Brazil’s oil production may fall short of expectations in 2024 due to regulatory delays, unplanned outages, and ongoing maintenance, signaling potential supply issues from non-OPEC+ countries
• UBS estimates the anticipated production growth of up to 315,000 barrels per day may be unattainable, affecting global supply projections

🔭 The context: Analysts expected robust non-OPEC+ supply, including from Brazil, to help meet global demand
• However, complications such as a strike at Brazil’s environmental agency delaying drilling permits have disrupted output, casting doubt on previous forecasts by the IEA and OPEC

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: Brazil’s slower production may influence global oil prices and impact the energy market’s shift toward sustainable alternatives
• Lower-than-expected output from Brazil could also intensify reliance on higher-emission energy sources elsewhere, affecting overall climate targets

⏭️ What's next: Oil markets will monitor further disruptions in Brazil and non-OPEC+ countries
• Continued shortfalls could spur demand for OPEC+ production, as well as affect global fuel prices as 2024 progresses

💬 One quote: “Market participants expect solid supply growth from non-OPEC+ countries, but we think they underestimate the risk of supply disappointments” – Giovanni Staunovo, UBS analyst

📈 One stat: October’s Brazilian crude exports signal a possible decline in oil production for 2024, with forecasts ranging between a reduction of 120,000 to 315,000 barrels per day

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