2026: The year companies have to walk the talk on sustainability

2026 on the surface might look like a challenging year for sustainability, but look a layer deeper, and it may be the year commitments turn into action. 

On the one hand, the dominant perception will be a continued pull-back of all things ESG. We're likely to see Super Bowl ads (a perennial US barometer for the current zeitgeist) focusing on history with the upcoming U.S. Semiquincentennial, and the macro nutrient of the moment, protein, but very little on companies celebrating their sustainability endeavors and achievements.

Corporations and asset managers will continue to talk less about sustainability (even if many keep their programs going), and fewer high-profile new commitments will be made. All signals point to the Trump Administration continuing to oppose the sustainability agenda by withdrawing from international sustainability partnerships and railing against wind energy and the “green new scam.” 

But, on the other hand, rhetoric notwithstanding, 2026 may represent a turning point. A shift from "the talk" to "the walk." 

Multinationals look for support on commitments

2025 was a commitment year for many companies, where progress against targets was slow but steady. While we expect some will publish good news in their sustainability reports later this year, we also expect many to fall short. 

With 2030 just on the horizon, a date by which most companies have an interim climate goal, we're going to have a "get serious" moment where some of the biggest brands will have to step up their investments to adjust their course.

An area where they can have an oversized impact to achieve the 2030 goals is in their supply chains. We’ve already seen this momentum building, with companies increasingly asking suppliers to share data through CDP, EcoVadis, and similar frameworks. Many enterprises also pressure their supply chains through carrots and sticks to share data, set targets, and take action.

But, despite more companies being asked for data through CDP in 2025, there was a first-ever dip in the number of reporters. As multinationals become more serious, some could be forced to pressure their suppliers to take action in 2026, either by mandating it or by offering incentives. Regulatory scrutiny and growing climate risks will only accelerate this process. We expect more suppliers to take advantage of those incentives or ensure they meet mandates.

State-level rules and the pendulum swings back

State-level rules including California Climate Reporting laws and Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) rules in OR, CO, CA, and other states, will drive new compliance mandates despite federal inaction. 

The California Rules will be the U.S.'s first climate disclosure rule, requiring thousands of U.S. companies to disclose their climate risks and emissions. While a court case hangs over the rules currently, and the climate risk element of the rule is under a court-ordered stay, many companies still expect to comply. In fact, more than 50 companies have voluntarily reported climate risks via the California Air Resources Board portal.  

EPR rules being implemented in 2026 will mean any company that works with packaging in states like California, Colorado, and Oregon will have new reporting and operational obligations, compliance costs, and face potential penalties for noncompliance.

This is Trump's last term. We expect the political pendulum to swing back toward the center, either after the 2026 midterms or when Trump's successor, from either party, takes office. Businesses that completely took their foot off the gas and even went into reverse may find themselves playing catch-up as sustainability rules are reinstated and others come into effect. This will put laggards at a competitive disadvantage.

Climate risks and the energy transition are not slowing down

2025 was the third-most-expensive year for climate-related disasters, following 2024, the most expensive year. 2025's disaster statistics are even more striking, considering that for the first time in a decade, no hurricanes struck the U.S. last year. We are seeing an acceleration of the risks related to a warming planet. "Unexpected," but ever more common climate-related events, such as storms or fires, will again be a recurring theme in 2026. 

Insurers, financial institutions, and large businesses understand that managing these risks and adapting will be one of the most significant ROI opportunities this decade. This year, that comprehension may trickle down to the middle market, where smaller companies can forge ahead in preparing to address all of the topics discussed here: meet future compliance requirements, build B2B relationships through information sharing, and build a competitive advantage. 

For the first time ever, renewable energy is the cheapest form of energy, which is why it made up more than 90% of new capacity in the U.S. last year. China dominates in clean tech adoption and manufacturing. The Chinese grid added more renewables than the rest of the world combined in 2024 and 25. But due to its lower cost, it has the potential to enhance energy security (it's impossible for an adversary to capture a U.S. sunbeam). In 2026, energy economics will topple energy politics.

2026 will be a year of contrasts. The public and political backlash will remain a prominent feature. But quietly, companies will continue to act because of the business value and the growing compliance requirement, and the energy transition will continue, as it is the most cost-effective, secure energy future. Businesses that begin to walk the talk stand to gain the most.

illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of leading Sustainability & Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.

Track the real‑world impact behind the sustainability headlines. illuminem’s Data Hub™ offers transparent performance data and climate targets of companies driving the transition.