Zimbabwe forest carbon megaproject generated millions of junk credits

illuminem summarises for you the essential news of the day. Read the full piece on Climate Home News or enjoy below:

🗞️ Driving the news: Verra, one of the largest carbon credit registries, has determined that more than 15 million carbon credits issued to Zimbabwe’s Kariba REDD+ forest-protection scheme were overstated and “in excess,” and is seeking compensation from the project developer, Carbon Green Investments (CGI)
• The registry has suspended the project, canceled buffer credits, and called on CGI to purchase and cancel equivalent credits to restore balance

🔭 The context: The Kariba REDD+ project, one of the world’s largest forest carbon schemes, spans protected areas across Zimbabwe’s Zambezi basin
• It has long faced scrutiny over alleged inflated baseline deforestation risks and weak benefit sharing with local communitieS
• Verra suspended the project in 2023 and initiated a review that has now validated many of those critiques
• Under its carbon accounting reassessment, Verra attributed 15.2 million of the roughly 26.8 million issued credits to overestimation of emissions avoided

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: This case underscores a systemic risk in voluntary carbon markets: project developers may overstate climate benefits, compromising the integrity of carbon offsets
• If uncorrected, such “junk credits” erode trust, allow companies to greenwash emissions, and shift the burden of accountability onto weaker actors — including local communities with limited recourse
• The Kariba affair may become a cautionary tale in debates over linking voluntary offsets with compliance markets

⏭️ What’s next: Verra is pushing CGI to compensate by canceling equivalent credits bought from other projects and is inviting holders of the remaining active Kariba credits to voluntarily cancel them
Because Kariba withdrew from Verra’s registry, there is no ongoing monitoring period to apply the “true-up” mechanism
• Verra has also canceled the project’s buffer pool credits preemptively and plans long-term monitoring to cancel future credits if forest loss exceeds what the buffer covers
• Critics remain skeptical whether the registry can enforce meaningful compensation, citing weak track records in recovering value from failed projects
• Buyers of Kariba credits (including Gucci, Nestlé, and Volkswagen) may face reputational or reporting risks 

💬 One quote: “It is not clear what, if anything concrete, will happen if CGI refuses this request… raising real questions over whether anyone will actually be held liable.” – Jonathan Crook, Carbon Market Watch  

📈 One stat: Of the ~26.8 million credits issued to Kariba, 15.22 million were judged by Verra to be “excess” — roughly 57 % of the total

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