Why a two-year surge in global warmth is worrying scientists

illuminem summarizes for you the essential news of the day. Read the full piece on The Washington Post or enjoy below:

🗞️ Driving the news: Despite expectations that global temperatures might cool after the 2023 El Niño, 2024 is set to break the record as the hottest year in history
• Persistent ocean heat, far beyond typical El Niño impacts, is keeping global temperatures elevated
• This anomaly is leading scientists to consider whether fundamental changes in the climate system are accelerating global warming

🔭 The context: El Niño events typically result in temporary spikes in global temperature, followed by cooling trends
• However, the absence of La Niña and ongoing marine heatwaves suggest this pattern is shifting
• Changes such as reduced atmospheric pollutants and diminished cloud cover may be amplifying warming, with oceans absorbing much of the heat

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: Record ocean and air temperatures exacerbate extreme weather events, including heatwaves, storms, and flooding
• Warmer oceans alter marine ecosystems, threaten fisheries, and fuel stronger weather systems
• Sustained warming could accelerate crossing the critical 1.5°C threshold, intensifying climate change impacts globally

⏭️ What's next: Scientists are closely monitoring whether temperatures drop or persist into 2025
• If the current warmth continues, the next El Niño could escalate global temperatures even further
• Uncertainty over these patterns raises concerns about the reliability of climate models and potential for extreme warming scenarios

💬 One quote: “The fact that we don’t know the answer here is not necessarily comforting to us,” - Zeke Hausfather, climate scientist at Berkeley Earth

📈 One stat: 2024 is projected to be 1.55°C above preindustrial levels, surpassing 2023’s record of 1.48°C

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