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Europe faces stormy future as climate change increases supercell risk

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By illuminem briefings

· 3 min read


illuminem summarises for you the essential news of the day. Read the full piece on Euronews or enjoy below:

🗞️ Driving the news: New research published in Science Advances warns that supercell thunderstorms — among the most destructive weather events in Europe — are expected to increase significantly due to climate change
If global temperatures rise by 3°C above pre-industrial levels, storm frequency on the northern side of the Alps could rise by up to 50%, with similar risks for parts of Central and Eastern Europe
These storms already cause widespread damage, with events in France, Italy, and Germany in recent years highlighting their growing impact

🔭 The context: Supercell thunderstorms differ from typical storms by featuring a rotating updraft, known as a mesocyclone, allowing them to last for hours and cover large areas
They are rare in Europe but responsible for a disproportionate share of damage, often involving large hail, strong winds, and flash flooding
As global warming accelerates, the conditions conducive to supercells — moisture near the surface, cooler air aloft, and wind shear — are becoming more prevalent
The research, led by the University of Bern and ETH Zurich, addresses a historical lack of pan-European storm tracking data by using high-resolution climate simulations

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: More frequent supercells pose severe risks to infrastructure, agriculture, public safety, and insurance systems
The €55 billion in insured losses from severe convective storms in 2023 made them the world’s costliest natural hazard type that year
Mountainous regions such as the Alps, where these storms are increasingly concentrated, face intensified environmental and economic vulnerabilities
Climate resilience planning will be crucial to mitigate these localized but high-impact events

⏭️ What's next: European nations must adapt infrastructure and emergency response strategies to cope with more frequent and intense storms
Improved cross-border radar systems and forecasting tools, like those developed by the Bern-based research team, will be critical for early warning and risk assessment
The findings also strengthen the case for urgent emissions reductions to limit global warming and avoid compounding storm-related threats

💬 One quote: “These regional differences illustrate the diverse effects of climate change in Europe.” — Monika Feldmann, Mobiliar Lab for Natural Risks

📈 One stat: With 3°C of warming, the northern Alps could experience a 50% increase in supercell thunderstorms — significantly raising the risk for countries like Switzerland, Austria, Germany, and northern Italy

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