Two new studies suggest Paris climate goal is dead. One scientist is going even further

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🗞️ Driving the news: Two new studies in Nature Climate Change suggest the world may have already breached the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming limit
• One study estimates a 60–80% chance this threshold has been crossed, while another argues 2024 likely falls within the first 20-year period of sustained 1.5°C warming
• Renowned scientist James Hansen warns global warming may exceed 2°C within decades

🔭 The context: The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, aimed to keep warming well below 2°C, with an ambition of 1.5°C
• Exceeding 1.5°C heightens risks of extreme weather, ice sheet collapse, and coral reef die-offs
Despite warnings, global emissions remain high, and some countries are reconsidering their commitments

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: Breaching 1.5°C makes climate impacts harder to mitigate, with rising temperatures intensifying droughts, wildfires, and floods
• Scientists warn of irreversible damage to ecosystems and heightened threats to human populations
• Without drastic emission cuts, the world risks surpassing 2°C, leading to catastrophic consequences

⏭️ What's next: Researchers stress urgent action is needed to prevent hitting the 2°C threshold
Rapid emissions cuts could still reduce long-term warming, but delays make the goal harder to achieve
• Some experts worry that surpassing 1.5°C could lead to reduced climate ambition and inaction

💬 One quote: “To all intents and purposes, breaching the 1.5-degree threshold is a given. We need to double down efforts to avoid the even more dangerous 2-degree Celsius threshold.” – Richard Allen, climate science professor at the University of Reading

📈 One stat: A study finds a 60–80% chance the world has already surpassed the 1.5°C threshold, based on 12 consecutive months of record-high temperatures

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