Mining is a rapidly changing industry. Key drivers of change that will continue in the new year include:

1. Demand growth given the combination of the energy transition, AI/tech and growing populations

2. Technological change impacting mining operations - AI, robotics, big data

3. Increased focus on community-centric solutions and environmental oversight - ESG is here to stay, and is aligned with responsible standards consolidation

4. Stronger more transparent integration between large scale miners, artisanal mining, refineries and downstream value chains

5. Geopolitical tensions and non-traditional investors impacting what the industry looks like

These areas combine to add tension to existing business models, which are evolving in order to deliver growth in ways that optimize value for investors and for broader stakeholders.

In this context, what are some key trends that the industry is likely to see in 2025? This article dives into themes that are likely for the new year, given the combination of pressures that the industry is facing and trends that are already gaining momentum. Many other topics could have been included in this list, but as a "Top 10", this article tries to distill the few critical themes that will continue reshaping mining over time.

Trends to look for

1. Geopolitical rivalries

Stable critical minerals supply is essential for economic, energy and military security. Whether the clean energy solutions of tomorrow or the strategic and military applications that minerals like copper have, controlling access to supply is essential for security.  

China has a clear lead on securing mining and refining dominance for the broad majority of critical minerals, with the US and EU now actively trying to catch up. Africa and Latin America are where US/EU-vs-China rivalries are playing out in particular, given the combination of mineral wealth and underdeveloped economies. These rivalries will only keep intensifying over time, which will impact strategies across mining value chains and responsible mining standards that support engagement across diverse cultural and economic environments. 

2. Non-traditional investors - Saudi Arabia/UAE

Critical minerals demand is rising, but investors have not been assertively funding development needed to bridge supply gaps.  As traditional investors remain skittish, worried about risks that range from exploration to cost to the earning of social license, the door is open for non-traditional investors to stake a claim to the significant growth that is needed.  Saudi and UAE investors in particular are building mining positions. As a third alternative, where they are neither seen as Chinese nor as US/EU, Saudi Arabia is leveraging decades of extractive experience and in-country reserves to go after opportunities in Africa and Latin America. The UAE is similarly focused on mining opportunities. Given public policy as well as investor commitment in both countries, there is a strong likelihood that we will see much more engagement from middle eastern investment as we look across the new year.

3. Responsible mining standards consolidation

Investors understand that earning social license as well as environmental oversight are key drivers of value.  There is a clear expectation that standards for responsible mining need to be transparent and consistent. ICMM, the Mining Association of Canada, Copper Mark and the World Gold Council are actively working on converging their four standards into a single standard.  In parallel, the UN Mining2030 Investor Commission is focused on ensuring investor expectations for both large scale and artisanal mining are clear. With responsible practices increasingly understood to be a source of competitive advantage, focus on converged robust standards will likely be accelerating in and beyond 2025.

4. Continued focus on M&A

M&A activity is an ongoing strategy for companies to lock-in supply positions, one that will continue in the new year. Although M&A is not net-new investment, not directly contributing to increased supply over time, it will continue to be important for companies that look for cost synergies and supply positions.

5. Strategic formalization of artisanal mining

Artisanal miners are a strategic source of critical minerals supply. Increased productivity results from formalization, a mechanism for bridging supply gaps of copper, nickel, manganese and other critical minerals over time. As understanding of strategic opportunities to combine value with impact in ASM come to be better understood by mining and impact investors, capital at-scale will start being deployed in support of formalization at-scale. An investment marketplace will gradually mature in this space, with important steps increasing momentum in 2025, including the deployment of a major digital marketplace focused on ASM that The Blended Capital Group, Capitals Coalition and the Alliance for Responsible Mining are collaborating on.

6. Tactical formalization of artisanal mining

Close to 20 million artisanal miners produce gold, and ASM also produces a variety of other precious metals and stones like sapphires. Although not strategic in the sense of critical minerals, the same opportunities to combine value with impact through formalization are in play across broader areas of artisanal mining. Just like a strategic focus on ASM formalization as a source of supply of critical minerals will increase in 2025, a tactical focus on delivering value and impact through the formalization of broader ASM production will increase in the new year. The same digital marketplace that will open doors for at-scale capital supporting critical minerals related ASM will equally open doors for broader gold and precious stones producers.

7. Community-centric focus/ESG

Communities make or break conflict-free projects, where earned trust results in social license over the course of time. Awareness as well as practices have been maturing for many years, but there is still significant work to do on developing fit for purpose practices and aligning them to converging responsible mining standards, which will continue across 2025. 

8. Environmental oversight/ESG

Ecological oversight is table stakes for responsible projects that earn community trust. This isn’t new, but just like community engagement, practices will continue to mature and align to responsible mining standards that are converging.

9. Stresses in historical business models: Investment and people

Mining is vast, global and growing, but at the same time traditional mining investors aren’t funding the growth of tomorrow and the industry is struggling to attract top talent. Clear trends in the industry have the potential to upend business models that have been with us for a long-time. Will community-engagement translate into community-centric projects over time, will ASM formalization support translate into collaborative LSM/ASM productivity, will non-traditional investors rethink long-held industry paradigms? Time will tell for all of these and for many other questions, but what is clear is that yesterday’s business model may not be tomorrows, and tensions around governance and organizing models will result in changes over time, making 2025 a very interesting year.

10. Continuing tension between rebrand and transform

Mining is traditional, but mining is rapidly changing – a tension that results in a duality where some focus on transformation of business models while others focus on rebranding and doubling-down on historical value-adding approaches. No doubt that this tension will continue and grow through the new year, as lack of mining investment and top-talent engagement in the industry will drive some to think about marketing / rebranding, while others think about what fundamental change looks like. As with trend #9, this discussion will likely keep intensifying and will make 2025 an interesting year.

In summary

Mining is changing, a clear bottom line with this top 10 list. Time will tell what tomorrow’s business models look like, but what is clear is that it will differ from yesterday’s and will be influenced by each of the trends in this list to varying degrees. My personal role as a Partner in The Blended Capital Group is focused on artisanal mining, items #5 and #6 in this list, but no specific focus comes in isolation given the broad changes that are in play across mining. The bottom line – 2025 will be interesting, with approaches to collaboration being central to evolving discussions across the industry.

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