The world will blow past U.N. climate goals in four years, report finds

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🗞️ Driving the news: Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to hit a record 38.1 billion metric tons of CO₂ in 2025, according to the latest Global Carbon Budget report
• Despite rapid growth in renewable energy, total emissions continue to rise — putting the planet four years away from breaching the 1.5°C warming threshold long considered the upper limit for preventing catastrophic climate impacts
• The report shows emissions accelerating in the U.S. and E.U., while growth slows in China and India

🔭 The context: The findings come as leaders gather for COP30 in Brazil, where the absence of the United States from formal negotiations has already stirred concern
• This year’s budget underscores a persistent disconnect: while clean energy deployment is expanding, fossil fuel consumption remains stubbornly high, challenging the goals set under the Paris Agreement
• Even under countries’ current policy pathways, the International Energy Agency forecasts nearly 3°C of warming by 2100 — far beyond safe limits

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: Crossing 1.5°C within four years would push ecosystems and societies into more dangerous territory, with heightened risks of extreme heat, crop losses, water scarcity, and ecosystem collapse
• The slowdown in emissions growth in China and India offers a glimmer of progress, but continued increases in the U.S. and Europe — partly driven by weather patterns and higher coal use — show how fragile the transition remains
• Weakening natural carbon sinks in forests and oceans further limits the planet’s ability to absorb emissions, narrowing the window for effective action

⏭️ What's next: Countries face mounting pressure at COP30 to agree on accelerated emissions cuts, expand climate finance, and advance technologies such as carbon capture — which remain expensive and politically fraught
• Researchers highlight the need for stronger domestic policies, clearer pathways to phase out coal and oil, and deeper cooperation among major economies to avoid overshooting global temperature goals
• Updated national commitments, due before COP31, will be an early test of whether governments are prepared to change course

💬 One quote: The expectation is that Chinese and global fossil CO₂ emissions should peak soon … but emissions keep growing, making the peak always seem like it is one year away.” — Glen Peters, Center for International Climate Research 

📈 One stat: 1.9% — the projected rise in U.S. fossil fuel emissions this year, driven by increased heating demand and elevated natural gas prices that pushed utilities back toward coal

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