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The rich from China and the US have contributed the most to global warming, according to a group of international scientists. We recount a new study on climate inequality
Wealthier people produce more emissions than the average person on the planet, so their contribution to climate change is disproportionately high. This is the conclusion reached by a group of researchers led by Sarah Schöngarth from the Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich.
The scientists quantified how emissions from consumption and investment by wealthy people affected global warming from 1990 to 2019. To calculate, they modeled climate change and the frequency of extreme natural events, taking into account emissions from wealthy people and without them.
Over 30 years, the average global temperature has increased by 0.61 °C. The researchers identified three income groups among wealthy people and assessed the contribution of each of them to this increase. First, the richest 10% of people in the world were assessed, and then the richest 1% and 0.1% were identified. It turned out that as income increases, so do emissions.
• The richest 10% (income from €43,000 per year). Their emissions are responsible for 65% of global warming, meaning their contribution is estimated at 0.40 °C.
• The richest 1% (income from €147,000 per year). They account for 20% of the global temperature increase, or approximately 0.12 °C. Scientists note that if everyone on Earth lived and consumed like this 1%, the planet’s temperature would rise by 6.7 °C, which is 11 times more than the current increase over the past 30 years and goes beyond all climate scenarios.
• The richest 0.1% (income from €538,000 per year). This group consists of only 800 thousand people. It is responsible for 8% of global warming, which is equal to 0.05°C.
How the scientists estimated income
Shengart and his team did not calculate the income distribution themselves, but relied on a database from another study.
The basis was a dataset from the work of Lucas Chancel, co-director of the Global Inequality Lab at the Paris School of Economics — a study on global inequality in carbon emissions for 1990–2019. Chancel estimated the emissions of the richest people using a model that combined data on income, wealth, and carbon emissions. His goal was to understand what share of global greenhouse gases are produced by different social groups.
There is no direct data on the emissions of individuals or income groups. Therefore, Chancel built a model based on two key sources:
• World Inequality Database. A database based on tax data, household surveys, and national statistics. Covers 174 countries.
• Emissions datasets. In particular, from the Global Carbon Project and EORA. They are grouped by emitters — for example, the state or households.
Chancel distributed consumption-related emissions among the population in proportion to income.
The scientist distributed emissions from investments, for example, large assets or industrial equipment, based on wealth. The premise is that rich people own most of the capital, which means that through their investments, they indirectly cause a significant portion of the emissions. For example, if 1% of the population owns 50% of the assets in the country, then they are attributed 50% of investment emissions.
He distributed emissions from the public sector evenly among all residents of the country, regardless of income. They include the costs of building roads, operating schools, and so on.
As a result, the researcher received an estimate of the distribution of all global emissions among the planet’s population by country, region, and income group. For example, in 2019, the richest 10% of people produced 48% of the emissions, and the 1%, almost 17%. At the same time, half of all people — the poorest 3.8 billion people — are responsible for only 12% of the emissions.
Key findings of the study
The climate damage from emissions associated with the consumption of the richest people is spread across the globe, not limited to the countries in which they live. At the same time, a significant part of the emissions of the rich is associated not only with their personal consumption, but also with investments in coal-fired power plants, oil and gas production, and heavy industry. For example, emissions equivalent to the consumption and investment of the 10% of the richest people in the United States and China led to a two-to-three-fold increase in the number of extremely hot months in the Amazon, Southeast Asia, and Africa.
The work of Sarah Shengart and her team is the first systematic study that shows a link between wealth and extreme climate events — droughts, heat waves, and other anomalies.
The researchers took the pre-industrial climate as a starting point, in which extremely hot or dry months occurred about once every 100 years. They then checked how often such months occur today due to emissions from different income groups. In the months with the highest temperatures, extreme heat began to occur on average 12 times more often than 300 years ago. At the same time, the contribution of the richest 10% was 7 times higher than the global average, and the contribution of 1% was 26 times higher.
It is impossible to combat the climate crisis without taking into account inequality in emissions, the authors of the study note. In their opinion, only then can we discuss a “wealth tax”, compensation for affected countries, and a review of climate commitments.
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