The greenhouse gases we’re not accounting for

illuminem summarises for you the essential news of the day. Read the full piece on MIT Technology Review or enjoy below:

🗞️ Driving the news: New research is revealing that climate change is triggering additional greenhouse gas emissions from natural systems — such as tropical wetlands, thawing permafrost, and boreal forest fires — in a self-reinforcing feedback loop
• These “warming-induced emissions” are largely excluded from current Paris Agreement pledges and many UN climate scenarios, meaning global warming could occur faster than forecast
• The nonprofit Spark Climate Solutions is launching a multi-institution model intercomparison project to quantify the combined impact of these feedback effects and integrate them into the UN climate panel’s upcoming assessment report.

🔭 The context: In 2020, methane levels rose at a record pace, with scientists tracing much of the increase to wetter, warmer tropical wetlands that favor methane-producing microbes
• Similar feedback loops are emerging in Arctic and boreal regions, where thawing permafrost and wildfires are turning former carbon sinks into sources
• Despite their scale, these emissions are poorly represented in most climate models due to monitoring difficulties and predictive uncertainties, leaving policymakers with overly optimistic carbon budgets

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: If these feedback emissions are fully accounted for, the time remaining before the world surpasses the Paris targets of 1.5°C or 2°C could shrink by up to 25%
• This underscores the urgency for deeper and faster emissions cuts, adaptation planning, and more accurate climate modeling
• Without this data, governments risk underestimating both the pace and severity of climate impacts — with direct consequences for human health, livelihoods, and biodiversity.

⏭️ What's next: Spark Climate Solutions, working with EDF, Stanford, Woodwell Climate Research Center, and international partners, aims to publish results in time for the UN IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report
• The findings could redefine global carbon budgets, influence national climate targets, and expand research into overlooked feedback mechanisms like ocean outgassing and farmland nitrous oxide releases
• Integrating this science into policy frameworks will be critical ahead of COP30 and beyond

💬 One quote: “These increased emissions from natural sources add to human emissions and amplify climate change… if you don’t look at all of them together, you can’t quantify the strength of that feedback effect.” — Phil Duffy, Chief Scientist, Spark Climate Solutions

📈 One stat: 30% of the Arctic–Boreal Zone has already shifted from being a carbon sink to a carbon source when wildfires, thawing permafrost, and other disturbances are factored in.

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