The domino effect that feeds the world (and could collapse it)

Editor's note: This is the first installment of a four-part series that provides a comprehensive diagnosis of the systemic failures within the global agrifood system and presents a detailed blueprint for a new, ecological and regenerative model.

Introduction: A compass in the crisis of certainty

We face an inescapable global challenge: sustainably feeding a population projected to reach nearly 10 billion by 2050. The current food system, driven primarily by terrestrial agriculture, places an unsustainable strain on the planet's resources. While aquaculture is emerging as a necessary solution to meet protein demand, its dominant industrial model often exacerbates the very problems it should mitigate.

In this urgent race for sustainability, a silent crisis is paralyzing progress: the Crisis of Certainty.

Investors, philanthropists, conservation agencies, and producers operate in a fog of ambiguity, where real impact is difficult to verify and the financial viability of ecological solutions is uncertain. This lack of certainty diverts capital, neutralizes innovation, and frustrates even the best-intentioned efforts.

This article is a compass designed to dispel that fog. It is not intended to demonize any sector, but to objectively analyze the often-invisible interactions within the global agri-food system. To understand why an industry with such potential risks exacerbates the very crisis it should mitigate, we must first diagnose the anatomy of the crisis itself.

Terrestrial exhaustion: A model at its absolute limit

The agri-food system has achieved a historic feat: feeding billions of people. Yet, in its current industrialized model, it has accumulated an unsustainable ecological debt that poses a threat to human survival. The scientific evidence is clear: six of the nine planetary boundaries that define a safe operating space for humanity have already been breached, and this system is a decisive contributing factor.

The expansion of the agro-industrial frontier is the primary driver of environmental damage. Agriculture consumes approximately 40% of habitable land and 70% of sustainable freshwater, while being responsible for roughly 90% of global deforestation, according to the FAO.

According to the World Resources Institute (WRI), feeding 10 billion people by 2050 under the current model is unsustainable, facing three critical gaps that can only be closed through profound transformation:

• Food Gap: An estimated 56% increase in caloric production is needed compared to 2010.

• Land Gap: Approximately 593 million additional hectares — nearly twice the size of India — will be required for agricultural expansion.

• GHG Mitigation Gap: A roughly 43% reduction in emissions is needed by 2030 to meet the Paris Agreement targets.

Expanding industrial agriculture would only intensify environmental pressures: more deforestation, accelerated desertification, increased pollution from pesticides and fertilizers, and further depletion of soils and water resources.

The shift to water: Aquaculture and the creation of the "domino effect"

With terrestrial resources saturated and fisheries overexploited (over 35% of fish stocks are at biologically unsustainable levels), aquaculture emerges as a necessary solution.

However, the dominant industrial model is not a sustainable fix but a connector that perpetuates and intensifies a negative feedback loop between marine and terrestrial ecosystems:

• Feedback to the Sea: Industrial aquaculture heavily relies on fishmeal and fish oil derived from wild fisheries, intensifying overfishing and exacerbating the deterioration of marine ecosystems.

• Feedback to the Land: To reduce this dependency, the industry turns to plant-based feeds like soy and palm oil. If sourced from conventional industrial agriculture, aquaculture indirectly drives deforestation and soil degradation, shifting and amplifying the problem back to the land.

Anatomy of the collapse: The vicious feedback loops that aggravate the crisis

This land-sea feedback loop does not operate alone; it triggers a series of self-reinforcing negative cycles that amplify each other, deepening the global crisis and moving us further from goals like the Paris Agreement and the Kunming-Montreal 30x30 Framework in specific, interconnected ways.

1. The climate loop: Rising emissions and deteriorating sinks

The agri-food system damages ecosystems that serve as natural carbon sinks, causing stored GHGs to be released and reducing the planet’s natural capacity to capture them.

• GHG Emissions: Deforestation for monocrops like soy or palm oil releases carbon stored in forests. Similarly, fishing practices like bottom trawling for fishmeal release "blue carbon" stored in marine sediments.

• Sink Degradation: The destruction of forests and mangroves eliminates future carbon sequestration capacity. In the sea, agricultural runoff causes eutrophication, which profoundly alters phytoplankton composition and function over time, reducing their photosynthetic efficiency. This is critical, as phytoplankton produce about 50% of global oxygen.

2. The biodiversity loss loop

The failures of the industrialized system are the primary driver of biodiversity loss, contributing to nearly 60% of the global total.

• In the Sea: Overfishing for fishmeal destroys the base of the trophic chain. Bycatch and bottom trawling are indiscriminately destructive, while "dead zones" cause localized mass extinctions.

• On Land: Deforestation for soy and palm oil eliminates critical habitats for countless species.

3. The unsustainable intensification loop

This cycle reveals how the system is forced to become increasingly destructive just to sustain production.

• Step 1: Degradation of the Productive Base: Practices like soy monocultures and overfishing degrade natural resources. Soil fertility declines and fish stocks diminish.

• Step 2: Decline in Natural Productivity: As resources degrade, natural yields fall, requiring more chemical inputs and effort to obtain the same output.

• Step 3: Pressure to Intensify: To compensate, the industrial paradigm intensifies further: more fertilizers, more deforestation, more powerful fishing vessels.

• Step 4: Degradation Feedback: This increased intensification accelerates the degradation of the natural resource base, locking the system into a cycle of diminishing returns and escalating destruction, directly threatening food security.

The inescapable conclusion

The current trajectory activates multiple self-reinforcing cycles that increase the risk of reaching irreversible tipping points — such as fishery collapses, desertification, and water crises. Without urgent systemic correction, the risk of a large-scale environmental and food collapse grows significantly.

The question, therefore, is not whether aquaculture will grow — it is inevitable given the demands of a growing population — but how it will grow. Will it follow the destructive path of the agro-industrial model, or can it prove there is a radically different route? The answer will determine whether aquaculture becomes part of the problem or the solution to the crisis described.

This article is also published on LinkedIn. illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of leading Sustainability & Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.

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