The coconut crisis paves the way to the spiral economy

The climate and biodiversity crises we face today are symptoms of a deeper problem: a global economy built to extract, exploit, and exhaust. Nowhere is this clearer than in agriculture—particularly the coconut industry—where a legacy of linear production has pushed supply chains to the brink. But in this collapse lies a unique opportunity. The coconut crisis is not just a failure of industrial farming; it's a moment to rethink the very foundations of how we create value. Enter the Spiral Economy, a regenerative alternative inspired by nature’s own rules of abundance.

A broken model: How linear logic fails agriculture

The linear economy is a simple and destructive formula: take, use, discard. In the coconut world, that means planting monocultures that take a decade to mature, harvesting only the meat (which is just 15% of the nut’s value), and discarding everything else. There’s no room for complexity, diversity, or feedback loops: only short-term extraction.

Over time, this model strips the land bare. Trees planted in the mid-20th century are now ageing out. The soil is exhausted. Communities remain locked in poverty wages, and climate shocks increasingly threaten fragile supply chains. Indonesia, the world’s top coconut producer, is already feeling the squeeze. Demand is booming, particularly from export markets like China, but domestic supply can’t keep up. Meanwhile, young farmers are abandoning rural life altogether. The system is not just unsustainable, it’s running on fumes.

What makes the spiral economy different?

The Spiral Economy reimagines the existing model from the ground up. Instead of extracting value in a straight line, it designs for compounding returns that spiral outward, generating more with each cycle. Inspired by nature’s own geometries like the Fibonacci sequence, the Spiral Economy layers functions, timelines, and outcomes.

Here’s how it works:

• Value across time: Instead of harvesting a single crop, systems are built to yield short-, medium-, and long-term returns.

• Nature-aligned: Crops are chosen not just for yield, but for resilience and regeneration potential.

• Compound returns: Every part of the system—trees, soil, labor, community—feeds into the next phase of value creation.

• Distributed benefit: Returns are shared, creating a feedback loop of investment and reinvestment within the system itself.

It’s a framework for building abundance—not scarcity.

From collapse to opportunity

The coconut crisis is a warning sign, but also a gateway. When we abandon the outdated logic of linearity, we make space for something richer. By applying Spiral Economy principles to agriculture, especially in coconut-producing regions like Indonesia, we can rebuild ecosystems, generate long-term income, and empower local communities not as an afterthought, but as a core design feature.

Conclusion

The collapse of the coconut industry isn’t just a supply chain failure, it’s a systemic wake-up call. We need to move beyond patchwork sustainability and embrace economic models that work like nature does: regeneratively, relationally, and with the long view in mind. The Spiral Economy offers a blueprint for that transition, turning today's crisis into tomorrow’s regenerative opportunity.

In Part 2 of this series, we’ll explore what these regenerative practices look like on the ground—and how coconuts might just be the proof we need that solutions are already within reach.

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