So much for ‘drill, baby, drill’?

illuminem summarises for you the essential news of the day. Read the full piece on CNN or enjoy below:

🗞️ Driving the news: Despite promises of “energy dominance” under President Trump’s second term, U.S. oil production is faltering amid depressed prices, weakening demand, and trade uncertainty
• S&P Global now forecasts that American oil output will decline in 2026 — only the second drop in a decade — signaling growing distress in the shale sector despite a deregulation push

🔭 The context: While Trump has called for OPEC to boost supply to combat inflation and pressure Russia, the resulting global oil glut has driven crude prices down to near break-even levels for many U.S. producers
• The administration’s escalating trade war has also triggered recession fears, further depressing commodity markets
• U.S. crude prices plunged 20% between April and early May, and though they’ve since rebounded slightly, they remain below profitability thresholds for much of the industry

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: Lower oil prices may temporarily benefit consumers and reduce inflation, but they undermine the long-term financial case for fossil fuel expansion — potentially curbing investment in new drilling projects
• This slowdown could align with climate goals in the near term but may also delay transitions if cheaper fossil energy competes with renewables
• It highlights the volatile dynamics of energy policy, geopolitics, and market forces in shaping decarbonisation pathways

⏭️ What's next: If oil prices fall into the $40 range — as some analysts predict — U.S. production could decline significantly, triggering job losses and potential bankruptcies, particularly among smaller producers
• While Big Oil may weather the storm due to recent consolidation, the outlook for independent shale drillers is more precarious
• Consumers, however, are likely to benefit from lower gas prices heading into summer

💬 One quote: “‘Drill, baby, drill’ is nothing short of a myth and populist rallying cry… Tariff policy is impossible for us to predict and doesn’t have a clear goal. We want more stability,” — a U.S. oil executive to the Dallas Fed

📈 One stat: U.S. oil output is now projected to decline by 130,000 barrels per day in 2026, falling to 13.3 million barrels per day

See on illuminem's Data Hub™ the sustainability performance of ExxonMobil and its peers Chevron, and ConocoPhillips

Click for more news covering the latest on oil & gas