· 8 min read
“Semipalatinsk was enough for us! We need to unite to say NO to radiation and the propagandists of building an NPP in Kazakhstan.”
This is the slogan voiced by AES kerek emes (kaz. “NPP is not needed”), an unregistered public association created in Kazakhstan in 2024 to lobby against the construction of the country’s first commercial nuclear power plant. Despite the government’s longstanding ambitions to become the first Central Asian country to develop nuclear power, the public does not seem fully convinced. Even though the 2024 referendum delivered a solid 71% in favour, at least 2 million voters opposed the plan - and possibly more - indicating persistent scepticism. This is echoed in a 2025 sociological study that revealed that as many as 82% of respondents believe the authorities were not conducting sufficient explanatory work on the safety of the NPP, and even nuclear supporters have more questions than answers. The issue of public opinion is therefore central for Kazakh nuclear development, and must be analysed in greater detail. This paper investigates public opinion on nuclear energy in Kazakhstan comprehensively, by exploring first the rationale behind nuclear development (I), then reasons for societal suspicions (II), and finally, existing government engagement strategies (III). Drawing on international experience and local context, the paper then offers recommendations to policymakers to foster informed public debate and increase support for the construction of an NPP.
1. Context & rationale in favour of the NPP
Analysing the evolution of Kazakhstan’s public attitudes towards nuclear requires a clear understanding of the context for its construction. The Government’s strong push in favour is notably due to a combination of factors that position nuclear energy as the key solution. First is the goal of alleviating energy deficits, which have become frequent and compromise energy independence. Indeed, power shortages and transmission failures have recently made Kazakhstan an energy importer, buying electricity from Russia or Uzbekistan. Second, according to the Kazakh Government, nuclear power will also help Kazakhstan maintain its regional leadership and avoid falling behind neighbouring countries, particularly as Uzbekistan pursues nuclear development. This constitutes a rather political dimension of Kazakhstan’s ambitions. Third, a successful development of nuclear power would also be crucial for Kazakhstan’s decarbonisation path, which includes decoupling the economy from fossil fuels and reducing CO2 emissions. Finally, the Government argues that an NPP would leverage the country’s competitive advantage, namely the abundance of uranium resources. These motivations together prompted the rapid, if not hasty, organisation of a nationwide referendum in Kazakhstan, sparking heated debates across the public and causing many to question the Government’s fervour.
2. Drivers for negative public opinion
Among such sceptics are, at the very least, 2 million voters, who maintain that Kazakhstan should avoid building an NPP despite the Government’s arguments. Their reasoning differs in formulation, but can be summarised in economic, political, and environmental sub-groups. Unfortunately, while economic and political sub-groups are backed up by some sound reasons, evidence from the environmental one indicates the circulation of insufficient/false information concerning the construction & operation of an NPP.
First, economic reasons for negative public perceptions are the high initial capital costs and the lack of specialised technicians. The Kazakh Ministry of Energy announced an estimated cost of $10-12 billion. Though funds from the budget, Pension Fund, or Sovereign Wealth Fund are not being considered, many still fear cost overruns as demonstrated by cases in other countries.
Next, politically speaking, the scepticism of Kazakhstanis is a result of a broader political culture and deep mistrust of the Government. On one hand, voters feel suspicious of close collaboration with Russia given its aggressive presence in the region. On the other hand, as Kazakhstan frequently tops international rankings of corrupt, authoritarian, or non-free states, many citizens also think that a project as big as an NPP is too attractive for corruption and mismanagement. One opponent notably says: “I am against construction, because I see that all the projects that the Government is implementing are untenable.” This is a factor that does not pertain specifically to nuclear power, but is due to the general extremely low level of trust between the voters and the State.
Last, it is the environmental sub-group that demonstrates the highest level of unfamiliarity with relevant information. Many opponents, including economists and ecology experts, view nuclear energy as an equivalent to renewables. They emphasise that wind and solar have no waste management requirements and are much cheaper in construction, completely overlooking the stark difference between their production profiles. This sub-group also includes beliefs that all nuclear reactors use up large amounts of water, and even in accident-free operation, emit dangerous particles in the atmosphere and surrounding territories. The latter belief is notably a result of Soviet-era trauma from a nuclear site secretly operated in Semipalatinsk, Eastern Kazakhstan. The ubiquity of these misconceptions is further exacerbated by high media coverage, resulting in a polarisation of society, as evidenced by the Demoscope.kz (2023) survey. To illustrate, there were notably more “certainly for” or “certainly against” positions among the respondents than “rather for” or “rather against” ones.
These 3 groups of factors have all contributed to the contentious debate over Kazakhstan’s nuclear future. While some concerns are justified, the prevalence of misinformation - especially regarding environmental risks - highlights the urgent need for a comprehensive, detailed, and widespread education campaign to alleviate tensions and ensure an informed public debate.
3. Effectiveness of current public engagement strategies
This need was clearly recognised by the Government. However, up to now, the State’s information campaign has enjoyed limited success. The reason for this is the authoritative approach taken during said campaign. Despite President Toqayev’s emphasis on building a “listening state,” the approach to public information has remained largely authoritative. Public discussions and hearings were organised by the Government in major cities, and a dedicated information website was launched. Yet, both initiatives faced heavy criticism for being one-sided. Some activists were forcibly removed from the discussions, while the website also only contained pro-NPP arguments, with little to no empirical data to support them (Idem.). In August 2024, the Energy Minister’s public condemnation of NPP opponents as “unpatriotic” and threats of police involvement further eroded public trust and reinforced perceptions of imposed decision-making. The dominance of state-affiliated speakers or speakers coming from the uranium industry fueled public scepticism even more. Hence, governmental attempts to address public opinion issues in Kazakhstan suffered from procedural, as well as political faults, compromising their effectiveness, despite appropriate motivations.
In conclusion, Kazakhstan has substantive reasons for developing its nuclear industry; however, public engagement efforts have been hampered by procedural and political flaws. It is therefore recommended that policymakers consider the following strategies:
Drawing on France’s experience, the establishment of Local Information Committees can improve societal engagement and create more opportunities for discussion. It could be particularly effective to include local religious leaders, e.g. imams, to appeal to religious communities. To address awareness levels on nuclear energy, more public discussions should be held in the presence of IAEA representatives or foreign experts, to increase legitimacy. This will eliminate fears of State misinformation and highlight independent expertise. On a more general level, the dedicated information website should be supplemented with empirical, referenced data on the construction and operation of NPPs, to ensure that all claims are verifiable and are not generic statements. This will address the issue of false information circulation.
These steps are essential for building informed public debate and genuine support for the nuclear project. Yet, their success will unquestionably depend on the Government’s political commitment to the campaign, as well as the final choice of the constructing & operating company.
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