Our 1.5°C climate goal has gone up in smoke. What now?

The world is entering uncharted climate territory. For years, the 1.5°C warming threshold has been a cornerstone of global climate ambition—a rallying cry for the Paris Agreement and a critical benchmark to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change. Yet, in 2024, it has become increasingly clear that this goal is slipping out of reach. A recent Nature study warns that even a temporary overshoot of 1.5°C could trigger irreversible changes, including accelerated sea-level rise and ecosystem collapses. Meanwhile, global carbon emissions hit a record high this year, climbing to 37.4 billion tonnes, driven by increasing use of coal, oil, and gas.

This is the reality: not only are we likely to breach 1.5°C in the next few years, but nearly all projections show we are on track to exceed 2°C, a temperature level associated with even more dangerous climate risks. As dire as this seems, abandoning climate action is not an option. Instead, this moment demands renewed urgency, bolder action, and a shift away from incremental progress toward systemic transformation.

A dose of climate reality

Surpassing 1.5°C is not a guarantee of catastrophe, just as being diagnosed with high blood pressure does not ensure a heart attack. But like untreated hypertension, it dramatically raises the odds of severe consequences: stronger storms, hotter heatwaves, collapsing ecosystems, and societal instability. The impacts of climate change are cumulative, with higher temperatures increasing the likelihood of reaching tipping points, such as the destabilization of ice sheets or the shutdown of key ocean currents. Feedback loops occur as melting ice reduces reflective surfaces, accelerates warming, and destabilized ecosystems release more carbon. These tipping points, such as permafrost thaw and ocean circulation shifts, make the pathway to 2°C and beyond even more perilous.

This analogy highlights the importance of action even after bad news. Just as a hypertensive patient must be even more diligent in controlling their blood pressure to prevent further complications, we must redouble efforts to stabilize temperatures. The higher the warming, the more likely these feedback loops—akin to cascading health failures—will push the planet into an unrecognizable state.

Beyond physical climate impacts, we also face societal disruptions and dislocations. Political instability, food insecurity, mass migration, and collapsing insurance markets loom in a climate-altered world. As insurance executives have repeatedly warned us, a 4°C warmer world will not be insurable. At that temperature, societal and economic systems may be well past their breaking points.

Why net zero is more important than ever

If we overshoot 1.5°C, does net zero still matter? Absolutely. Net-zero commitments remain essential for stabilizing the climate and minimizing further damage. Returning to the blood pressure analogy, high readings mean greater urgency, not resignation. Lifestyle changes like diet and exercise (and their planetary equivalents—emissions reductions and renewable energy adoption) become even more critical. Without these efforts, warming would continue unabated, locking in more catastrophic impacts for generations to come.

Net-zero by 2050 provides the most scientifically grounded way to stabilize the global climate while balancing social and economic realities. Nearly all of today’s decarbonization pathways assume some level of overshoot above 1.5°C, but also envision massive deployment of carbon removal technologies. Given how untested these technologies are at scale, immediate action is even more important to reducing emissions today. We would not recommend that a sick patient rely on a miracle cure tomorrow if they could take steps to improve their health today.

Fortunately, the economic and political rationale for net zero is more compelling than ever. Governments, businesses, and individuals must align their strategies with a low-carbon future. Public sector commitments as the EU’s Green Deal and industrial policy in China have proven effective in catalyzing green innovation, investment, and production. Similarly, nations that lead in clean energy and climate solutions stand to gain a competitive edge, from job creation to dominating the burgeoning market for green technologies.

Accelerating climate action: What needs to be done

Incrementalism has failed. It has been nearly 10 years since the Paris Agreement, yet trillions are still being spent on new fossil fuel production, and emissions continue to rise. The scientific reality demands fundamental changes from governments, corporations, and individuals. The time for small steps is over.

Governments need to radically redefine climate ambition

Policymakers must immediately stop harmful fossil fuel subsidies and collaborate internationally on more ambitious emissions cuts. International agreements like COP are only useful if they are backed by national enforcement. That means governments must develop laws and policies that accelerate the phase-out of fossil fuels and the growth of clean energy. In addition, public climate finance for mitigation and adaptation efforts should be significantly expanded. This was a centerpiece of the COP29 negotiations and is essential to protect populations most at risk of climate change. Finally, leaders should be investing in resilience in the face of a warming world.

Corporations need to make transition planning central to their strategies

Public sector actions alone are insufficient to combat the climate crisis. The private sector must also be committed to action. Fortunately, net-zero commitments by major corporates have gone mainstream, with thousands of businesses pledging to decarbonize their activities by 2050. However, the gulf between ambition and action remains extensive. This is where transition planning comes in. The development and implementation of net-zero transition plans provides a roadmap for firms as they consider the strategies, capital expenditures, and innovations that will enable them to reach this critical goal. Corporate leaders should endorse policies that support the economic conditions needed to achieve net zero. They must also invest in decarbonizing their supply chains and their client bases, recognizing that it is no longer sufficient to simply focus on their immediate operations. As they proceed on their net-zero journeys, firms must be transparent in their reporting on decarbonization so that financial decision-makers can effectively allocate capital towards the transition.

Individuals must raise their voices and take action

While individuals alone cannot solve the climate crisis they have important roles as voters, consumers, employees, and advocates. From voting for climate-conscious leaders to adopting sustainable habits, collective action shapes policy and market dynamics. Advocacy for systemic change—both politically and within workplaces—can amplify the impact of individual efforts.

Adapting to a 2°C world

As we move towards a 2°C world, adaptation needs to be a priority for policy and planning. Strengthening coastal defenses, particularly in regions most vulnerable to sea-level rise, will be critical. Urban areas need to adopt heat mitigation strategies, from planting trees to expanding green roofs, to combat intensifying heatwaves.

Agriculture and food security must also be reimagined. Expanding access to drought-resistant crops and water-saving irrigation technologies can help protect food supplies in increasingly unpredictable climates. Similarly, infrastructure investment should focus on resilience, ensuring that roads, bridges, and energy grids can withstand extreme weather events.

The financial sector also has a role to play. Developing insurance products tailored to climate risks and creating innovative financial tools to support recovery efforts in disaster-prone regions will help societies adapt. Prioritizing resilience now in financial decision-making will protect trillions in assets later.

Adapting does not mean conceding defeat. It acknowledges the trajectory we are on while striving to avert worse outcomes. Every effort we make today to adapt builds resilience for tomorrow’s challenges.

Climate mitigation beyond the 1.5°C threshold

The rising climate risks are not unlike a patient with untreated hypertension. Just as ignoring high blood pressure leads to greater risks over time, abandoning climate ambition locks in worse outcomes. Surpassing 1.5°C should be the wake-up call we desperately need to redouble our efforts on climate mitigation. Just as adhering to a proper diet and exercise become even more important after a heart attack, climate action becomes more essential above 1.5°C. We must approach every fraction of a degree of warming with the urgency demanded, as lives depend on it.

The decisions we make now will determine how our societies deal with a warming world. By embracing climate realism, pursuing bold actions, and accelerating decarbonization, we can begin to restore Earth’s climate system to health.

This article is also published on Forbes. illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of leading Sustainability & Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.