New surveys should be concerning for US climate advocates

There’s only one word to describe the results of a new Climate Insights survey of public opinion by researchers at Stanford University and Resources for the Future (RFF)—CONCERNING! The obvious question facing both the climate and clean energy communities is what should be done about it.

But first, something about the survey’s results is in order. The survey interviewed 1,000 American adults and was conducted by the firm ReconMR for RFF and Standford University. The most recent data was gathered between October 16, 2023, and February 23, 2024. The survey and report are the most latest installments of what has become a multi-year exercise.  

Except for climate skeptics being less sure of their positions (by six percent) since 2020, the trend is not the friend of the climate and clean energy advocacy communities. According to the survey:

• Seventy-five percent of Americans believe the World’s temperature has increased over the past 100 years. A decrease of eight percent since 2020.

• Twenty-one percent of Americans consider climate change to be extremely important to them. This group comprises those who vote the issue—no significant change since 2020.

• Support for solar power fell by eight percent over the past ten years.

• Support for wind-powered electricity has dropped by 14 percent over the past decade.

• Sixty-seven percent of Americans trust climate scientists, which is a decrease of eight percent since 2020.

I can only speculate on some of the reasons why support for solar and wind is weakening. For example, it likely has to do with the rising number of utility-scale projects proposed that are being opposed by communities and some red-state administrations.

It’s all well and good to point to surveys showing overwhelming numbers of voters concerned about Earth’s warming and supportive of clean energy alternatives. However, these numbers have not shown themselves to result in concerted federal action nor in universal acceptance of the available technologies, e.g., electric vehicles.

There are multiple disconnects between what a respondent to a survey says and what they do. Not the least of these differences is between favoring an increase in clean energy supplies and the desire to live next to large-scale wind and solar projects.

The community-level conflicts are fueled by misinformation—often paid for by fossil fuel interests. According to Columbia University’s Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, “nearly 300 projects have faced serious opposition, and at least 228 local governments that either place onerous restrictions on wind and solar projects or ban them outright.” In 2023, the number of challenged projects between March 2022 and May 2023 increased by nearly 40 percent, while the number of local restrictions increased by 35 percent.  

Although the breakdown is not exact, red and blue states have very different ideas about clean energy. Red-state Ohio empowers local jurisdictions to outlaw the siting of large-scale installations. Whereas the blue states of Michigan, Connecticut, New York, Minnesota, and Rhode Island are committed to transitioning to 100 percent carbon-free electricity between 2033 and 2024 (depending on the state). To ensure that happens, these states and other states, e.g., Illinois, have passed legislation that prohibits local governments from outlawing solar and wind projects.

The downward trend found in the RFF/Stanford survey is consistent with the findings of a Pew Research Center survey showing a decline in the “breadth of support for wind and solar power.” Figure 1 shows that support for solar power dropped from 90 to 84 percent, while that for wind dropped by eleven percent.

The numbers are consistent with those reported by RFF/Stanford researchers for the decade. However, Pew’s numbers should be even more concerning because they reflect a drop over the past four years. Years coinciding with the administration of the most climate-conscious president in US history. Moreover, the survey is more recent (May 2024 v. October 2023-Feb 2024) and involved a much larger sample of adults (8,638 v. 1,000).

According to the Pew poll, Republican support for solar has dropped by 20 percent and wind by 19 percent since Biden took office. Pew’s associate research director, Alec Tyson, has cast the lost support as a “significant change,” going on to say that—

“It’s a new level of polarization on energy issues that we had not previously seen.”

The Republican nominees for president and vice president are solidly on record as opposed to electric vehicles. As a senator, JD Vance introduced legislation in 2023 “that would repeal the federal tax credit for electric vehicles. Titled the ‘Drive American Act,’ S. 2962 would instead offer tax credits for US-made vehicles powered only by gasoline or diesel.” The GOP’s VP nominee, like Trump, has targeted whatever remains of the Inflation Reduction Act for rescission should they prevail in November.

The GOP platform isn’t shy about categorizing climate and clean energy as part of the woke agenda and, therefore, in need of exorcism from the American landscape—political and physical. The very first promise Republicans make in Chapter 1 of their 2024 platform is this:

• Unleash American Energy. Under President Trump, the U.S. became the Number One Producer of Oil and Natural Gas in the World — and we will soon be again by lifting restrictions on American Energy Production and terminating the Socialist Green New Deal. Republicans will unleash Energy Production from all sources, including nuclear, to immediately slash Inflation and power American homes, cars, and factories with reliable, abundant, and affordable Energy.

Former President Trump’s denial of climate science and successfully making the environment and clean energy a meme for the culture wars makes the GOP’s position hardly surprising. The point here is not that the ex-president’s positions aren’t fanciful rather than factual.

The concern should be over the constancy of the drumbeat of opposition and the possibility that it’s succeeding—as evidenced by both the RFF/Stanford and Pew surveys showing declining support for solar and wind. Tell a lie often enough, and somehow, it can become reality. Isn’t that Trump’s oeuvre?

Even should Trump lose, the drum beats will continue—for at least as long as the cultural chasm between red and blue exists. The challenge is how to soften, if not silence, the banging of the drums.

I have thoughts on how that might be accomplished. But those are subjects for a different day. In the meantime, talk amongst yourselves about the RFF/Stanford and Pew survey reports and whether you agree they are reasons for concern.

This article is also published on the author's blog. illuminem Voices is a democratic space presenting the thoughts and opinions of leading Sustainability & Energy writers, their opinions do not necessarily represent those of illuminem.