India’s steel expansion threatens climate goals and global efforts to clean up industry

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🗞️ Driving the news: India's ambition to nearly double its steel production capacity by 2030 — from 200 to over 330 million tonnes — could derail both its national climate targets and global decarbonization efforts in the steel sector, according to a new Global Energy Monitor (GEM) report
• With over 40% of global planned steel capacity in development located in India — much of it coal-based — the country’s expansion risks locking in high carbon emissions for decades.

🔭 The context: Steelmaking accounts for approximately 12% of India’s current greenhouse gas emissions, a figure that could double within five years if current expansion plans proceed without cleaner technologies
• Despite progress in renewable energy — such as surpassing 100 GW of installed solar power — India’s steel sector remains tied to coal due to inexpensive domestic supplies, an underdeveloped scrap recycling ecosystem, and a fleet of relatively new blast furnaces

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: Steel is responsible for nearly 9% of global emissions, and the sector’s transformation is vital for meeting international climate targets
• The International Energy Agency calls for 37% of steel to be produced with low-emission electric arc furnaces by 2030, yet global projections fall short — largely due to India’s coal-heavy pipeline
• Without significant shifts, India could slow global momentum toward green steel while also risking future competitiveness

⏭️ What's next: Although over 90% of India’s planned steel capacity remains unbuilt, offering a chance to pivot, the window is narrowing
• Global regulatory shifts — such as the EU’s impending carbon border adjustment mechanism—may soon penalize carbon-intensive exports
• Experts argue India should embrace near-term technological upgrades to avoid long-term economic disadvantages and climate setbacks
• Policy support for scrap use, natural gas access, and green hydrogen could play a critical role in any transition

💬 One quote: “India is now the bellwether of global steel decarbonization... So goes India, so goes the world.” — Astrid Grigsby-Schulte, Global Energy Monitor

📈 One stat: India’s steel sector emits approximately 2.6 tonnes of CO₂ per tonne of steel produced—about 25% higher than the global average

See on illuminem's Data Hub™ the sustainability performance of Tata Steel and its peers ArcelorMittal, and Steel Technologies

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