IMF study shows concern — but not panic — over AI's climate toll

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🗞️ Driving the news: A new IMF study highlights the potential for AI technologies to significantly increase global CO2 emissions, projecting 1.3 to 1.7 gigatons of added emissions from 2025 to 2030 under current energy policies
• It raises alarm given that the figure approximates Italy’s five-year energy emissions
• The IMF values the social cost of these emissions at $50.7–$66.3 billion, compared to AI's projected economic gains

🔭 The context: This assessment joins a growing body of research on the energy footprint of AI infrastructure, particularly data centers
• While some recent IEA analyses suggest that fears may be overstated, the global rise in emissions and ongoing failure to meet climate targets heighten scrutiny on any new emissions sources
• The IMF situates its analysis within its broader World Economic Outlook, reflecting how economic and climate impacts are becoming increasingly intertwined

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: AI could significantly strain global electricity systems, with projected usage reaching 1,500 terawatt-hours by 2030 — comparable to India’s total power demand
• This raises concerns about the carbon intensity of energy sources powering AI growth
• Without a rapid shift to clean energy, AI expansion risks undermining progress toward net-zero goals, even as the technology is touted for its emissions-reduction potential

⏭️ What's next: Key stakeholders — including policymakers, tech companies, and utilities — will need to navigate the trade-offs between AI innovation and climate responsibility
• The adoption of renewable energy in AI infrastructure and more robust accounting of emissions costs will be critical in shaping future impacts
• Ongoing international assessments and policy shifts, particularly around carbon pricing and green energy mandates, are likely to influence how the balance evolves

💬 One quote: "The social cost of these extra emissions is minor compared with the expected economic gains from AI, yet it still adds to the worrying buildup of worldwide emissions." – IMF study

📈 One stat: 1,500 terawatt-hours – Projected global electricity demand from AI by 2030, equivalent to India's current total electricity consumption

See on illuminem's Data Hub™ the sustainability performance of OpenAI and its peers NVIDIA, Google, and Deepseek 

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