How South America became the up-and-coming oil capital of the world

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🗞️ Driving the news: South America is fast becoming the planet’s newest oil frontier, with Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina among the top five global drivers of new oil supply outside OPEC
• Brazil has approved exploratory drilling near the mouth of the Amazon River, just weeks before hosting COP30
• Guyana, following a major offshore discovery in 2015, is now the world’s top oil producer per capita, while Argentina is scaling up shale extraction from the vast Vaca Muerta basin

🔭 The context: Despite growing calls to reduce fossil fuel reliance, these countries see oil as a critical lever for economic growth and energy security
• Brazil’s strategy hinges on ultra-deep “pre-salt” reserves and the controversial Equatorial Margin, while Guyana’s rapid transformation into a petrostate is reshaping its economy
• In Argentina, President Javier Milei is banking on shale development to stabilise the nation’s volatile economy, despite environmental concerns over fracking

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: This oil expansion is unfolding amid worsening climate impacts in South America, including severe floods, droughts, and fires
• Drilling in ecologically sensitive regions like the Amazon raises significant environmental risks—from oil spills to disruption of carbon-rich ecosystems
• While leaders argue oil revenues can support clean energy, expanding fossil fuel infrastructure risks locking in high emissions and delaying the low-carbon transition

⏭️ What's next: Brazil’s approval for Amazon drilling is expected to face legal and civil society challenges during COP30
• In Guyana and Argentina, oil expansion depends on stable governance and resilient pricing
• But with global demand projected to peak in the early 2030s, late-stage investments risk becoming stranded assets
• These dynamics will shape whether South America becomes an energy leader—or a cautionary tale

💬 One quote: “These countries are getting to the party right as the bar is closing,” — Michael Ross, political science professor, UCLA

📈 One stat: 650,000 barrels per day — current offshore oil output from Guyana, making it the world’s top per capita oil producer

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