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Goldman sees carbon market heading for historic tipping point

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By illuminem briefings

· 2 min read


illuminem summarizes for you the essential news of the day. Read the full piece on Bloomberg or enjoy below:

🗞️ Driving the news: Goldman Sachs predicts a significant shift in the EU carbon market, where carbon prices will decouple from gas prices due to changing dynamics such as reduced emissions caps and industry demand for permits
This marks a departure from the traditional link between lower gas prices and lower carbon costs.

🔭 The context: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine spurred massive energy investments in Europe, increasing renewable energy production and gas supplies
As gas prices decline, carbon prices are expected to rise, driven by stricter emissions regulations and higher compliance costs for industries

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: The tightening of the EU carbon market aligns with the bloc's goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050
Higher carbon prices incentivize industries to invest in decarbonization technologies, crucial for reducing greenhouse gas emissions

⏭️ What's next: Goldman Sachs forecasts EU carbon allowance prices could reach €130 per ton by 2028, with further increases expected as supply tightens and compliance obligations rise
The market shift is anticipated to occur around 2026, turning current surplus into a deficit

💬 One quote: "If anything, the higher carbon price will be a helpful way to make sure power prices don’t fall so much that the development of renewable power becomes challenged from an economics perspective." — Michele Della Vigna, Goldman Sachs

📈 One stat: Emissions covered by the EU Emissions Trading System fell by 16% last year, marking the largest annual decline on record

Click for more news covering the latest on carbon market

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