Introduction

The Nigerian electricity sector has undergone various reforms over the years, all aimed at increasing the country’s power supply, reliability and competition. This need to increase electricity supply is critical considering the country’s growing population, which stood at 224 million in 2023. Two of the sector’s most notable reforms have been the partial privatisation in 2013 and the Electricity Act of 2023.

However, despite these efforts to improve the sector’s efficiency, it still faces numerous challenges that affect the quality and reliability of power supply. These include:

• Poor investment
• Inadequate infrastructure
• Lack of cost-reflective tariffs
• Electricity theft and vandalism
• High Aggregate Technical, Commercial and Collection (ATC&C) losses

These challenges affect the sector so critically, that of the country’s almost 14,000 MW of installed capacity, it only averages about 4000 MW.

According to the World Bank, only about 60.5 percent of Nigeria’s population has access to electricity. This means that a significant part of the population relies on alternative off-grid electricity sources such as petrol and diesel gensets. A 2021 Power Africa study estimates that Nigerians spend an average of ₦5 trillion yearly on self-generation of power from petrol and diesel generators. The study further estimates the country to have the largest potential off-grid electrification market in Africa. 

Currently, Nigeria heavily relies on fossil fuels, as the ratio of fossil fuel generation to renewable energy generation in the on-grid sector is 80:20. However, the large off-grid electrification potential provides an opportunity for more renewable energy sources to be adopted to offset fossil fuel generation. In addition, the growing interest in clean energy sources also helps contribute to the national decarbonization goals, such as its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and Energy Transition Plan (ETP).

In the recent rise in renewables, wind energy has not been paid as much attention when compared to other renewable energy sources. This is quite ironic, considering that it is one of the most efficient renewable energy sources. But, what is Nigeria’s wind energy potential?

Wind energy potential in Nigeria

Nigeria’s wind potential is moderate as the country averages wind speeds of 2.1 m/s to 8 m/s at 10 metres. The highest speeds of this range occur mostly in the northern parts, often exceeding 7 m/s. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) estimates that Nigeria’s wind energy potential is at 3200 MW. However, the country's Renewable Energy Roadmap pegs this estimate to exceed 4000 MW with the consideration of variables such as the varying wind speeds across the country’s different regions. 

This means that Nigeria has an opportunity to leverage over 4 GW of additional electricity capacity. And with the resource’s distribution across the country, it creates a strategy for hard-to-reach underserved and unserved communities, particularly in the north, to gain access to electricity. 

Currently, the Katsina Wind Farm, which began development in 2010, holds the country’s 10 MW of installed wind energy capacity. However, it is not yet operational due to technical and security delays. In addition, the Gurara II Wind Farm in Niger state is under development, with the aim to deliver 50 MW of wind energy capacity.

This means that Nigeria has an opportunity to leverage over 4 GW of additional electricity capacity. And with the resource’s distribution across the country, it creates a strategy for hard-to-reach underserved and unserved communities, particularly in the north, to gain access to electricity. 

Currently, the Katsina Wind Farm, which began development in 2010, holds the country’s 10 MW of installed wind energy capacity. However, it is not yet operational due to technical and security delays. In addition, the Gurara II Wind Farm in Niger state is under development, with the aim to deliver 50 MW of wind energy capacity. 

The benefits of wind energy

Like other renewable energy sources, wind energy offers several benefits, which include:

• Environmental benefits: As a clean energy source, wind energy generation not only produces no emissions, but also contributes to climate action adaptation strategies by offsetting existing emissions. Nigeria can leverage this as one of the actionable steps towards achieving its NDC
• Economic benefits: The development of wind energy projects helps to create job opportunities across the project implementation value chain and life cycle from inception to operations and maintenance. Also, more wind energy projects mean more electricity capacity and reliability. This would contribute to increased energy security, promoting productivity and growing the economy
• Social benefits: The development of wind energy projects can also help improve the quality of life for populations. This is achieved through a reduction in emissions which positively impacts health, and improves local infrastructure that come with the development of wind projects, among others

Challenges to wind energy development in Nigeria

• Insufficient regulatory and policy frameworks: Although there are various renewable energy targets and commitments in Nigeria, there is uncertainty surrounding step-by-step implementation processes to meet most of these targets. For example, there is no clear strategy for how the country’s wind energy targets will be achieved
• Poor infrastructure: The national grid currently suffers numerous collapses due to poor maintenance and ageing infrastructure. Integrating wind energy into the grid will require large investments in smart grid technologies which the country may not be able to bear locally
• Lack of awareness: A majority of the Nigerian population lacks knowledge on the benefits of renewable energy sources such as wind. High initial costs associated with these energy sources are often a disadvantage. Hence, these misconceptions affect the scalability of such projects

Strategies for successful wind energy development

• Clear Policy and Regulatory Frameworks: Nigeria’s National Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Policy targets 0.8 GW of wind energy 2030. However, to achieve this and other similar targets, precise and phased strategies need to be developed and implemented, and standards need to be set for developers and utilities
• Private sector investments: Considering the amount of investments required for wind projects and grid upgrade infrastructure, it is important for the private sector to be incentivised. These incentives include clear and harmonised frameworks, tax breaks, and guarantees on investments through public-private partnerships (PPPs)
• Building local capacity: This is important to build a homegrown ecosystem for wind energy and ensure that projects are designed to fit the peculiarities of local contexts

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