Get ready for several years of killer heat, top weather forecasters warn

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🗞️ Driving the news: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UK Met Office warn of a high probability — 80% — that Earth will break another annual temperature record within the next five years
• Their joint five-year outlook also finds a 70% chance that average global temperatures over this period will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, breaching the Paris climate agreement's key threshold
For the first time, there is a measurable chance of hitting 2°C of warming before 2030

🔭 The context: The world already experienced a year (2024) that temporarily exceeded the 1.5°C threshold, largely driven by an El Niño event
• Historically, global temperatures rise in stepwise patterns due to natural variability overlaid on a long-term human-induced warming trend
• Recent years show the planet failing to cool back between El Niño cycles, reinforcing the “new normal” of extreme heat
• These forecasts rely on over 200 climate model simulations from 10 leading scientific centers

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: Surpassing these temperature thresholds increases the frequency and intensity of deadly heatwaves, wildfires, hurricanes, and droughts, with serious consequences for public health, biodiversity, and infrastructure
• Arctic warming — now 3.5 times faster than the global average — will further accelerate sea level rise and ecosystem disruption
• The warnings point to a narrowing window for mitigation and adaptation, especially in vulnerable regions.

⏭️ What's next: Governments and communities must urgently scale up adaptation strategies, such as heat-resilient infrastructure, early warning systems, and protections for at-risk populations
• On the mitigation front, the science reinforces the need for rapid emissions cuts to stay within the Paris Agreement’s safer limits
• The UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Brazil in 2025 will be a pivotal moment for recalibrating global ambition and finance commitments

💬 One quote: “Record temperatures immediately become the new normal.” — Rob Jackson, Climate Scientist, Stanford University

📈 One stat: There’s an 86% chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels — up from just a 1% chance ten years ago

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