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🗞️ Driving the news: A major new analysis finds that global fossil fuel emissions will hit a record high in 2025, even as a surge in renewable energy sharply slows the growth of overall emissions
• Countries at COP30 face mixed signals: progress on clean energy is undeniable, yet far too slow to meet global climate goals
🔭 The context: The Global Carbon Budget estimates fossil fuel and cement emissions will rise 1.1% to 38.1bn tonnes of CO₂ this year
• Total human-caused emissions — including land-use change — are expected to dip slightly to 42.2bn tonnes, mainly due to reduced deforestation after the end of El Niño
• Emissions growth has slowed significantly: just 0.3% per year over the last decade, compared with 1.9% in the decade prior
• Clean energy think tank Ember reports that fossil-fuel electricity generation has flatlined for the first time outside a recession, with soaring solar and wind more than meeting rising electricity demand
• More than 35 countries have cut fossil emissions while growing their economies — nearly double the number a decade ago
🌍 Why it matters for the planet: This year may mark the beginning of a global emissions plateau, especially in the power sector — the world’s largest source of CO₂
• Solar is growing faster than any electricity source in history, and the IEA now believes global energy-sector emissions could peak within a few years
• But the world remains dangerously off-track: current policies put Earth on a 2.6°C warming trajectory, far above the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal
⏭️ What’s next: Analysts say a permanent decline in fossil-fuel electricity emissions could begin within a few years, but only if governments accelerate renewable deployment and avoid locking in new fossil infrastructure
• COP30 negotiators face intense pressure to secure firmer commitments on phasing out coal, oil and gas, and scaling climate finance
• Without rapid movement toward net-zero, even an emissions peak will only slow, not stop, global warming
💬 One quote: “Whatever happens in the power sector has an outsized influence on what happens for emissions worldwide.” — Nicolas Fulghum, Ember
📈 One stat: Globally, 63% of people say they struggle to verify the accuracy of climate and energy information, underscoring the importance of transparent data as COP30 unfolds
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