Countries plan to boost fossil fuel production far beyond Paris climate goals by 2030

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🗞️ Driving the news: A new UN-backed Production Gap Report reveals that fossil fuel producers plan to extract more than double the amount of coal, oil, and gas by 2030 than would be compatible with the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C climate target
• The analysis, released just weeks ahead of COP30 in Brazil, warns that current government plans remain far off-track despite mounting scientific and policy consensus on the need to phase out fossil fuels

🔭 The context: Since 2019, the Production Gap Report, produced by the Stockholm Environment Institute, Climate Analytics, and the International Institute for Sustainable Development, has assessed the discrepancy between national production plans and global climate goals
• The 2025 edition examines 20 major fossil-fuel-producing countries responsible for over 80% of global output, including the U.S., China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia
• Despite climate pledges, 17 of these countries plan to increase production of at least one fossil fuel by 2030

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: Continued fossil fuel expansion threatens to lock in emissions for decades, undermining global efforts to limit warming and exacerbating climate-related risks
• Planned production through 2035 for coal and through 2050 for oil and gas signals long-term investments inconsistent with net-zero pathways
• Without urgent policy shifts, these trends will jeopardize the feasibility of a just and orderly energy transition

⏭️ What's next: With COP30 set for late November in Belém, pressure is mounting on governments to align production plans with climate commitments
• Observers expect intensified calls for a global fossil fuel phase-out and greater scrutiny of subsidies and new extraction projects
• The report underscores the need for stronger international mechanisms to govern fossil fuel supply, alongside demand-side measures
• Financial institutions and investors are also likely to face growing pressure to redirect capital toward sustainable energy systems

💬 One quote: “Governments’ continued plans to expand fossil fuel production are at odds with their climate commitments,” said Ploy Achakulwisut, lead author of the report.

📈 One stat: Countries' planned fossil fuel production in 2030 exceeds the level consistent with 1.5°C by 110%, and with 2°C by 69%

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