COP29: How the world can change its “fossil food” diet and decarbonize agriculture

The world is moving towards cleaner and greener energy, but little progress has been made in decarbonizing our food systems. Today’s carbon-intensive global agricultural system relies primarily on ‘fossil foods’ and, while innovative technologies such as electric autonomous tractors and green fertilizers offer potential to transform our food system by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and minimizing land use, they are not yet deployed on a scale to make a measurable difference.  We need to prioritize new ways to feed our future, and make food’s relative carbon and climate impact easier to digest.  COP29 presents an opportunity to further plant the seeds of an increased global effort to redefine food security, and nurture a transition from a carbon-intensive, extractive agricultural industry to a more inclusive, decentralized regenerative approach that is better suited to flourish in our warming world before the globe’s historical ‘bread baskets’ are laid bare by climate change. 

As the world prepares to meet at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan in November, the devastating reality of climate change continues to hit hard across the globe. 

From ferocious heat across Asia, the Middle East, and North America to fatal floods in Kenya, Brazil, and Afghanistan, people around the world are paying with their lives, livelihoods, health, and well-being. 

While exciting progress has been made in electrification — renewables now account for a record 30% of global electricity, and solar and wind are already cheaper than fossil fuels in 82% of the world, with their price set to halve this decade — one key sector continues to lag behind in decarbonization progress: agriculture.  

The global food system is both a significant contributor to climate change and one of the sectors most vulnerable to its impacts. Employing millions worldwide, agriculture is critical to the world’s health, environmental, and financial security.  

While attendees at last December’s COP28 pledged to take steps to reduce the colossal climate footprint of food systems and, around the same time, the U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) unveiled its first-ever installment of a roadmap for transforming the global food system to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), little progress has been made. 

To ensure a sustainable future, COP29 must center agriculture in its climate agenda, promoting practices that reduce emissions, enhance resilience, and support food security for a growing global population.  

The Baku conference has the opportunity to further plant the seeds of an urgent global effort to decarbonize our food systems so that they can flourish in our warming world. It must champion a transition from a carbon-intensive, extractive agricultural industry to a more regenerative approach that will make the relative carbon impact of food production easier for society to digest.

‘Fossil foods’: Growing greenhouse gases along with crops

Although estimates vary, peer-reviewed studies have found that the global food system is responsible for approximately one-third of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. 

Therefore, the true yield of much of the world’s agriculture is not just plants, food, or livestock, but vast quantities of greenhouse gas emissions as well.  

In addition, our global food system relies heavily upon significant petroleum-based inputs in the form of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, and crops are then subsequently harvested, processed, and transported using a significant array of hydrocarbon-powered equipment.  

To help bring attention to this urgent crisis, I have categorized these agricultural outputs as ‘fossil foods’. And, like many diets, I urge the world to focus on cutting carbs throughout the agricultural value chain, from “farm to fork.” 

Some may consider the alignment of ‘fossil foods’ to ‘fossil fuels’ and the long-term divestment effort around the latter to be somewhat controversial. But if that is what it takes to raise awareness of the urgent need to transition away from carbon-intensive agriculture to more regenerative, sustainable, and inclusive agriculture, then I think we should take a big bite.   

The world needs to transition to a healthier, decarbonized diet, from both a human health perspective as well as an environmental health perspective. We need debate, innovation, policy change, and leadership to drive this transition towards a more fulsome and inclusive consideration of the water/energy/food nexus, particularly in developing nations. Just as the ‘Green Revolution’ in the 20th century saved millions from hunger and malnutrition across the Global South, we need a 21st food revolution to save future generations not just from hunger but also from exacerbating climate change.

Admittedly, this is a complex and highly political debate, particularly as the world considers how to respond to the immense role that animal agriculture and consumption play in driving climate change.  This article will not take on the “cow in the room that is being ignored” as Stephanie Feldstein, Population and Sustainability Director at the Center for Biological Diversity, so eloquently described the refusal to call out animal agriculture as the leading cause, by far, of agricultural emissions, as well as, other forms of environmental destruction in food and agriculture systems.  Rather, this article examines what we can do in the near term to cut the carbon footprint of our food.

While exciting innovations such as electric autonomous tractors that leverage soil, plant, and satellite data and green fertilizers that can increase crop productivity hold promise in revolutionizing agriculture, the scale and reach of such innovations are akin to the fabled search for a needle in a haystack: they are extremely difficult to find in the enormity of agricultural activities globally.  

Bringing these and the many other novel innovations needed to decarbonize agriculture up to scale will require a collaborative array of public financing and new industrial policies.  We’ll explore a few of these below, but — like any addiction — the key first step to overcoming our dependency is recognizing the challenges arising from the climate-agriculture nexus; understanding that the “usual” definition of food security is no longer adequate in our warming world; and acknowledging that the world’s current dependency on ‘fossil foods’ is a problem.  

A growing problem: The climate-agriculture nexus

Agriculture is responsible for a substantial portion of global greenhouse gas emissions, primarily via methane from livestock, nitrous oxide from fertilized soils, and carbon dioxide from deforestation and land-use changes.  

In the U.S., for example, agriculture contributes approximately 10 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions.  

However, this figure does not include emissions from fossil fuel used in the planting, harvesting, transporting, and processing of crops, nor the emissions resulting from the production, processing, and shipment of key carbon-based inputs such as fertilizers or pesticides.  Thus, the carbon footprint of food systems is usually underestimated, and agriculture is also a major source of air and water pollution

Alongside its contribution to climate change, agriculture is heavily impacted by shifting weather patterns, extreme weather events, and changing pest and disease dynamics, which threaten crop yields and livestock productivity. Thus, there is a cause-and-effect relationship between climate change and agriculture.

At COP29, it is imperative to recognize the growing problem of this dual role of agriculture. Effective climate action requires integrating agricultural strategies that mitigate emissions while enhancing the sector’s resilience to climate impacts. This integration is not only crucial for achieving global climate goals, but also for ensuring the stability and sustainability of our food systems.

The root of the problem: Redefining food security

Food security has historically been defined as the reliable availability of sufficient nutritious food supplies at affordable prices. But, given climate change and our increasingly warm world, this definition is no longer sufficient.  

Enhanced and inclusive food security needs to better reflect the environmental and economic challenges and trade-offs arising from climate change, and must also consider the carbon intensity of food systems.  

After all, if we are truly feeding the future, we must ensure that we are doing so in a way that doesn’t leave the future’s soils, rivers, aquifers, oceans, and ecosystems exhausted, impaired, or warmed to such an extent that our fed future cannot sustain itself.   

Food security must also recognize geopolitics and globalization.  For many decades, food security was defined in the context of a world of relative abundance and integration, where well-functioning global agricultural markets could respond to price signals and supply/demand curves. 

However, just as Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine upended global energy markets, it also disrupted global fertilizer and grain supplies.  The world responded urgently to the former with accelerated efforts to diversify energy supplies and transition to greener power generation, but its response to the latter has been slower and actually widened the rift between rich and poor nations.  

Specifically, with the onset of the Ukraine war, many developing countries were unable to readily access traditional supplies of wheat and fertilizer due to the conflict and global sanctions imposed upon Russia.  And, while navigating these unexpected constraints, the Global North was also pressuring many of these same nations to avoid the heavy environmental footprint and deforestation that new widescale domestic industrial agriculture would cause.  Thus, these impacted nations could not import the food they needed and, at the same time, they were being urged to avoid the large-scale cultivation that could help them keep hunger at bay.

This dilemma illustrated the importance of recognizing that climate change, energy security, water availability, and food security are inextricably linked, and subject to global geopolitical tensions.  Transitioning or tackling one independently of the others is likely to leave us hungry for more, and further emphasizes the needs to put the world on a sustainable diet away from ‘fossil foods’.

Cutting carbs: Three diet strategies for global agriculture

Like all diets, there is not one ‘silver bullet’ to achieve our desired outcome.  In order to help the world overcome its ‘fossil food’ addiction and prioritize the decarbonization of agriculture for a more sustainable future, COP 29 need to advocate for a multi-course buffet of actions:

A. Embracing sustainable agricultural practices   

COP 29 must encourage the widespread adoption of sustainable agricultural practices. These practices can simultaneously reduce emissions and increase resilience, creating a win-win scenario for the environment and food security.

1. Agroecology and Regenerative Agriculture:

• Soil Health: Practices like cover cropping, crop rotation, and reduced tillage improve soil health and carbon sequestration, reducing the need for chemical inputs and enhancing resilience to droughts and floods.

• Biodiversity: Incorporating diverse crop species and integrating livestock with crop production can create more resilient farming systems that are better able to withstand climatic shocks.

2. Climate-Smart Agriculture:

• Precision Farming: Utilizing data and technology to optimize input use (water, fertilizers, pesticides) can reduce emissions and increase efficiency while also improving yields.

• Water Management: Implementing efficient irrigation systems and water-saving techniques can help manage water resources sustainably, particularly in water-scarce regions.

3. Agroforestry:

• Integrating trees into agricultural landscapes can enhance biodiversity, improve soil health, and provide additional income streams for farmers through timber, fruit, and other products. Trees also act as carbon sinks, mitigating climate change.

B. Supporting Farmers Through Policy and Innovation

For sustainable agricultural practices to take root, COP29 must ensure that farmers, particularly smallholders and those in developing countries, receive the support they need. This includes access to financing, technology, education, and markets.

1. Financial Incentives and Subsidies:

• Redirecting subsidies towards sustainable practices and providing financial incentives for adopting climate-smart techniques can encourage farmers to make the necessary transitions.

2. Research and Development:

• Investing in research to develop new crop varieties that are more resilient to climate change and innovative farming techniques is crucial. Sharing this knowledge globally can help farmers adapt more quickly.

3. Education and Training:

• Providing farmers with the knowledge and skills to implement sustainable practices is essential. Extension services and farmer-to-farmer training programs can play a significant role in this regard.

4. Market Access:

• Ensuring that farmers have access to fair markets for their products can help them achieve financial stability while adopting sustainable practices. Fair trade and organic certification programs can support this goal.

C. Activate funding for technological innovations

As the Breakthrough Institute recently reported, during the 2019-2020 fiscal year, food and agricultural technologies received only $11.9 billion in project-level finance and about $1 billion in venture capital investments globally, a tiny portion of the estimated need of up to $218 billion per year to achieve agricultural decarbonization.

Thus, while technologies capable of reducing agricultural emissions while maintaining productivity — such as electric tractors, alternative proteins, controlled environment agriculture, novel fertilizers, feed additives to reduce methane production in cattle, and much more — exist and/or are in development, private sector finance has not yet been able or willing to fund and build the industries and technologies required to decarbonize the food system at scale.

To use an apropos agricultural analogy, we are witnessing a literal ‘chicken vs. egg’ scenario in which the vast market for such equipment cannot be achieved because there is not enough investment to build/deploy the equipment.

COP29 needs to activate discussions around innovative finance and public-private partnerships that can help “unlock” these critical technologies.  An array of programs aimed at funding the construction of first-of-a-kind facilities, new loan programs designed for agricultural and food technologies and specific tax credits for investments in and production of those technologies are just a few examples of specific solutions to the financing challenges facing these emerging industries today.

In fact, there is an argument that the groundswell of public and private funding directed towards carbon capture and storage projects should be broadened to more fully embrace agriculture. There have been nascent efforts at both carbon capture and storage within food systems that deserve more financial support and, as noted above, mitigation of agriculture-related carbon is an area of rich potential as well. Robust funding programs aimed at research, commercial demonstration, and deployment can help unlock the crucial technologies needed to accelerate decarbonization and underpin continued agricultural productivity growth.

The importance of support: The role of international cooperation

As with all diets, group/community support goes a long way in ensuring follow-through and success.  Cutting carbs out of global food systems is no different.  Climate change and agriculture are global issues that require international cooperation. COP29 is an opportunity for countries to work together, sharing knowledge, resources, and technologies to create a more sustainable agricultural future.

1. Global Partnerships:

• Forming partnerships between governments, international organizations, the private sector, and civil society can drive collective action and resource mobilization for sustainable agriculture.

2. Trade Policies:

• Aligning international trade policies with climate goals can promote sustainable agricultural practices globally. Removing trade barriers for sustainably produced agricultural products can create economic incentives for farmers.

3. Adaptation Funding:

• Increasing funding for adaptation projects in agriculture, particularly in vulnerable regions, can help build resilience and protect food security.

Conclusion

COP29 represents a pivotal moment for the future of agriculture. By placing agriculture at the heart of global climate discussions, world leaders can catalyze a transformation towards sustainability that is essential for mitigating climate change and ensuring food security. Embracing sustainable practices, supporting farmers, and fostering international cooperation are key steps towards creating resilient agricultural systems that can withstand the challenges of a changing climate.  It is imperative that COP29 seizes this opportunity to forge a path towards a more resilient and sustainable future for all, and urges the world to divest itself from ‘fossil foods’ by cutting carbs out of global agricultural systems.