As COP29 convenes in Baku, the global climate agenda faces a significant shift. With the United States retreating from its leadership role under President-elect Donald Trump, the dynamics of global climate power and influence are changing. China, already a dominant force in clean energy manufacturing and investment, stands to gain. However, the UK, with its newly outlined climate policies and historical influence, has an opportunity to position itself as the developed world’s climate leaders.

The decline of U.S. climate leadership

The U.S. has historically played a pivotal yet inconsistent role in global climate diplomacy. It was instrumental in establishing the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 and later in shaping the 2015 Paris Agreement, committing to significant emission reductions and climate finance under President Obama. However, the U.S. has also hindered progress, notably by refusing to ratify the Kyoto Protocol and withdrawing from the Paris Agreement during President Trump’s first term.

Under President Biden, the U.S. rejoined the Paris Agreement, and at last year’s COP28, John Kerry emphasized America’s renewed commitment to global climate leadership, pledging stronger international cooperation and financial support. However increasing partisanship means this policy pendulum is likely to continue, creating uncertainty in international climate efforts. The U.S.’s latest withdrawal creates a leadership vacuum—one that both the UK and China are well-positioned to fill.

The UK: A rising climate leader in the West

The UK faces significant economic challenges, with a mounting deficit and stagnant growth. With free trade deals with the U.S. and the EU appearing distant, Prime Minister Keir Starmer is seeking opportunities such as the one presented by the U.S.’s withdrawal from climate leadership.

As one of the few G20 world leaders to appear at COP29, the Prime Minister highlighted the UK’s commitment to climate action through ambitious policies and investments. The pledge to reduce emissions by 81% by 2035 sets a high bar for other nations as they prepare their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by February. The UK aims to leverage its track record in offshore wind, demonstrating its engineering expertise, its status as a global financial center and its detailed Net Zero Strategy, which includes ending new North Sea oil licenses, to reinforce its potential as a climate leader.

To capitalize on this opportunity, the UK must:

1. Attract international investment in clean tech and renewables manufacturing

The UK needs to enhance its policy framework to attract international investment. The current planning process is cumbersome to say the least; however, the £960 million Green Industries Growth Accelerator is a positive step. 

2. Leverage diplomatic influence

By playing a leading climate diplomacy role in forums like COP and the G7, the UK can encourage other nations to adopt more ambitious climate goals. Strengthening trade relations focused on green technology could also boost its economic standing. For credibility the UK also needs to play its part in assisting the developing world to decarbonize. 

3. Focus on green skills development

Training programs aimed at equipping the workforce for jobs in the green economy can help the UK build the talent needed to lead in clean tech manufacturing and renewable energy deployment. 

The Prime Minister has a strong majority in Parliament. If used effectively, he could push through the UK’s version of an Inflation Reduction Act and much-needed permitting reform, which would go a long way toward establishing the country as a hub for renewable energy manufacturing and clean tech innovation. This could drive significant economic growth and job creation.

China: An economic and climate superpower

While the UK has the potential to lead in the West, China remains a dominant force on the global stage. Already the world’s largest producer of solar panels, batteries, wind turbines, and electric vehicles, China has positioned itself as a leader in renewable energy technology and manufacturing. Despite being the world’s largest emitter, China’s investments in green technology offer hope for global climate progress.

China’s economic and political strategies align closely with its climate goals, offering pathways to dominate emerging green markets. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been a cornerstone of China’s international economic policy, aiming to enhance global trade and stimulate economic growth across Asia and beyond. In recent years, China has emphasized the “Green Silk Road,” promoting environmentally friendly investments within the BRI framework. This includes significant investments in renewable energy projects in BRI countries, such as solar and wind farms in Kazakhstan and Pakistan, and hydroelectric dams in Cambodia and Uganda.

If China steps up its contributions to international climate finance and emissions reductions, it could solidify its position as a global climate leader, potentially driving cooperation with developing nations through initiatives like the Belt and Road’s Green Investment Framework.

The economic opportunity

Clean energy contributed a record 11.4tn yuan ($1.6tn) to China’s economy in 2023, making it the largest component of the country’s economic growth. Both the UK and China stand to gain economically by filling the leadership void left by the U.S. 

Clean energy and green technology sectors are poised for strong growth, with global investments expected to surpass $4 trillion annually by 2030. This isn’t a pipe dream; as we are all impacted by floods, wildfires, and drought, investment will happen. By positioning themselves as leaders in these markets, both nations hope to secure economic growth, enhance energy security and create millions of jobs.

For the UK, this means revitalizing its manufacturing base and boosting exports of green technology. For China, it offers a chance to cement its dominance in global clean tech markets while also enhancing its international reputation.

A shared responsibility

While their approaches may differ, the UK and China share a unique opportunity, and responsibility, to lead the global climate effort. If the UK is successful, it can demonstrate that ambitious climate action is not only possible but economically advantageous. China can leverage its industrial might to drive technological advancements and provide critical support to developing nations. 

Crucially, both need to lead on financially supporting green growth in developing countries. Without leaders the funding will not follow and there also goes any real hopes of remaining 2 degrees of heating above pre industrial levels. 

A brighter future?

The retreat of U.S. leadership need not spell disaster for global climate efforts. Instead, it opens the door for new leaders to emerge, shaping a more collaborative and sustainable future. The UK and China, each in their own way, have the potential to steer the world toward meaningful progress. Can climate leadership make the UK great again? Time will tell.

COP29, despite its many challenges, could mark the beginning of a lasting reshuffling of the deck of climate leadership, one where strong actions and canny international diplomacy drive environmental and economic prosperity and crucially, a just energy transition. The opportunity is there; the world is watching.