China, India and Brazil set to steer global climate change agenda at Cop30

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🗞️ Driving the news: China, India, and Brazil are poised to take the lead at the upcoming COP30 climate summit in Belem, Brazil, as traditional Western powers, particularly the United States, scale back their engagement on climate action
• With U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirming his withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and Europe preoccupied with energy security due to the Russia-Ukraine war, a leadership vacuum has emerged—offering the Global South a critical opportunity to shape global climate priorities

🔭 The context: The U.S. has seen a notable climate policy reversal under Trump, echoing his 2017 decision to leave the Paris Agreement
• Meanwhile, the EU’s climate ambitions have been tempered by energy dependence and internal political divisions
• As a result, attention has turned toward major emerging economies, where Brazil—host of COP30—alongside China and India, is increasingly seen as central to the future of international climate diplomacy

🌍 Why it matters for the planet: Leadership from the Global South is essential to driving inclusive and equitable climate solutions, especially as these nations are both major emitters and highly vulnerable to climate impacts
• Their stronger engagement could rebalance global climate governance, emphasize climate justice, and advance adaptation and finance frameworks
• However, the challenge lies in whether these countries will prioritize ambitious mitigation alongside their developmental needs

⏭️ What's next: COP30, scheduled for November 10–21, is expected to see China, India, and Brazil propose new frameworks and assert stronger influence over agenda-setting, particularly around climate finance, loss and damage, and technology transfer
• Observers will watch closely for new alliances and bloc formations that could redefine negotiation dynamics and the direction of global climate action in a multipolar world

💬 One quote: "With the climate retreat of the US and growing domestic challenges in the European Union, countries such as Brazil, India and China and other emerging economies now have an open space to shape the global climate discourse." – Li Shuo, Asia Society Policy Institute

📈 One stat: The Global South collectively accounts for over 60% of global greenhouse gas emissions, highlighting the critical role these nations must play in meeting the Paris Agreement targets

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